Men's Bracketology - Feb. 22, 2012

by Josh Carey

Every week we project the NCAA bracket here at D3hockey, we find some new wrinkle to reinforce just why examining this process is so fun. Since this column uses an extensive, data-driven approach, these wrinkles aren't the result of forcing an agenda or trying to make the bracket look a certain way. Rather, it's an organic extension of years of effort at analyzing the NCAA's process and trying to come to the best conclusions we can based on the information we have at the time. 

This week's wrinkle is very significant, and changes the complexion of the field in a very big way. Interestingly, it may give the entire bracket more “integrity” - that is, having teams play who their seeding would dictate they should play if this were a truly national tournament. What change can have such a profound impact on the field? Keep reading to find out.

The Tournament

• The 2012 Men's Division III Ice Hockey Championship will consist of 11 teams.

• Eight conference playoff champions will receive automatic qualifying bids (Pool A) to the tournament. Those conferences are the: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, MASCAC, MCHA, MIAC, NCHA, NESCAC & SUNYAC.

• Three teams that do not receive Pool A bids will receive at-large (Pool C) bids into the tournament. Every team that did not receive a Pool A bid is eligible for a Pool C bid.

• For the purpose of Pool C selection, as well as team comparisons for regional ranking purposes, the NCAA committee will rely mainly on what it refers to as its Primary Criteria, which are as follows:

- Win-loss percentage against regional opponents (WIN)

- Strength of schedule against regional opponents (SOS)

SOS is comprised of 2/3 Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) and 1/3 Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP)

- Head-to-head competition (H2H)

- Results against common in-region opponents (COP)

- Results against in-region ranked teams in NCAA rankings (RNK)

Regional Rankings

• The NCAA regional committees will release three editions of regional rankings prior to tournament selection, with the release dates being February 14, 21 and 28. A fourth will be generated on Selection Sunday, but those are not released to the public.

• The East Region rankings will contain 15 teams, the West Region seven.

• For the sake of RNK, the NCAA considers a team ranked once it appears in its respective regional rankings, even if it should fall out at a later date.

NCAA Regional Rankings - February 21

Previously Ranked Teams

East: Fredonia State

West: UW-River Falls

Analysis

Since a team is always considered as ranked once it is ranked a single time according to this year's handbook, we'll be tracking the list of previously-ranked teams in this space as well to make an accurate representation of RNK. 

The biggest surprise this week is how far UW-River Falls fell after its NCHA Quarterfinal sweep at the hands of UW-Eau Claire. The Falcons were a team we were discussing in the at-large picture just two weeks ago, but three losses in their last four games served to be a major undoing.  We can say confidently now that the Falcons season is officially over. 

Elsewhere in the West, UW-Eau Claire solidified its, UW-Stevens Point joins the fringe of the at-large discussion, and the possibility (while still very remote) opened up for St. Thomas to still get into the field even if they falter in the MIAC playoffs. 

In the East, Utica jumped Manhattanville after the Valiants' poor weekend against Hobart. This puts the Pioneers firmly in the at-large discussion for the first time this season. Meanwhile, Castleton's Saturday loss to Skidmore seems to have put the final nail in the coffin of the Spartans' at-large hopes this season. Much like last year, part of the drop can surely be attributed to their low SOS mark (.500), but this year Castleton was able to successfully get more games against ranked opposition. However, a mere 1-4-0 record in those games is likely the biggest reason why ir never managed to pull into at-large discussion. The Spartans hopes now rest solely in the ECAC East tournament. 

Bowdoin moves up a spot to take Castleton's old place at eighth in the East, but with its similarly low SOS numbers, it seems very unlikely the Polar Bears could get into Pool C consideration this year. They will be forced to win the NESCAC tournament to make the dance.

Pool Selection

• Pool A:  As Bracketology assumes this would be the tournament field were the season to end today, we will use the teams leading the eight Pool A eligible conferences as our automatic qualifiers.  Thus, the eight Pool A bids go to:

• Pool C:

We now must consider what teams will get at-large bids to the tournament. That requires looking at the highest ranked teams in the regional rankings that are not projected to win Pool A, and those are:

East: Plattsburgh, Elmira, Utica

West: St. Scholastica, Gustavus Adolphus/UW-Stevens Point

We start by comparing the top teams in each region, using the numbers provided by the NCAA:

Here we see the dangers of the three-point series as far as NCAA Tournament selection is concerned. St. Scholastica saw just a .008 increase in their winning percentage from their series against UW-Stout last weekend, but dropped from .535 to .526 in the all-important strength-of-schedule metric. As it stands, Plattsburgh easily sweeps the comparison and advances to the tournament, setting the Saints up for a comparison against Elmira:

It's another clean sweep for the East, meaning St. Scholastica has just one shot left at the tournament after we move Elmira into the field.  This time, the Saints draw Utica:

This is the most difficult comparison we've had to look at all year in Bracketology. Were I a member of the regional committees, I would likely call it a tie, wrap up the column and go on my way. But that's now it's going to happen here. 

A straight reading of the comparison has the Saints coming out ahead 2-1 by taking winning percentage and RNK, and the difference in RNK is not an insignificant one. Historically, there has been a bright line distinguishing teams above .500 and below .500 in that metric. The issue that really complicates this comparison is Utica's commanding SOS advantage, which could be enough to outweigh the two smaller advantages for the Saints. 

(Editor's Note: A previous version of this item incorrectly listed St. Scholastica's RNK as 7-5-1, a .577 winning percentage. This change does not affect any of the resulting analysis.)

Let's see if any of the applicable secondary criteria provide any relief here: 

• Head-to-head competition outside of a region
• Win-loss percentage against all Division-III teams
• Results against common non-Division-III opponents
• Results against all Division-III ranked teams
• Overall win-loss percentage (includes Division-II teams)
• Results against all common opponents
• Overall Division-III strength of schedule
• Win-loss percentage during the last 25% of the season (roughly 6-8 games). 

The first measurement we can use is an analysis of overall win-loss percentage. Utica has a November win against Division II St. Michael's. If we add that game on to the team's ledger, the Pioneers' WIN improves to .640. That's close enough to St. Scholastica's .648 to be considered a tie, which is a slight improvement for Utica since we're counting WIN as a slight loss for them. 

Otherwise, we just have to look at record in the last 25% of the season. For Utica, that's seven games in which it has gone 3-3-1 (a .500 winning percentage). One-quarter of the Saints' season is also seven games. St. Scholastica has tallied a 4-2-1 record over that span, a .643 winning percentage. 

That means we've now compared five different criteria in this comparison (In-region winning percentage, overall winning percentage, winning percentage in the last quarter of the season, strength-of-schedule, and record against ranked teams). St. Scholastica has won all but one of those comparisons, at least two solidly and another by enough to consider it a victory and not just a tie. 

It's difficult to express just how close this comparison is at the moment (and the discussion will likely be rendered moot by a highly-ranked team losing their conference tournament), but at this moment, St. Scholastica is the final team in the tournament.

Setting the Field

• Thus, our full tournament field consists of:

Seeding the Field

• Now the field must be seeded by region.  Using this week's regional rankings, it would look something like this:

Setting the Field

For the first time this season, we have to consider a bracket with four West Region. We have two options due to Adrian's unique travel situation. I'll lay out the option I think is less likely first:

First Round

7E Plymouth State @ 2E Norwich

6E Wentworth @ 3E Amherst

5E Elmira @ 4E Plattsburgh State

Quarterfinals

4W Adrian @ 1W St. Norbert

3W St. Thomas @ 2W St. Scholastica

Elmira/Plattsburgh 1E @ Oswego State

Wentworth/Amherst @ Plymouth/Norwich

Analysis:  

There are several problems with this bracket. Since we just did the Pool C comparisons, we know that St. Scholastica (and, by extension, St. Thomas and Adrian) are all ranked below every Eastern team except Wentworth and Plymouth State. However, this bracket gives those three lower-ranked teams Quarterfinal byes while four higher-ranked Eastern teams play on Wednesday.

This would be a very entertaining bracket if the chalk held (SUNYAC rivals Oswego and Plattsburgh, Amherst from the NESCAC and Norwich from the ECAC East in a battle of former interlock foes, and both the MIAC and MCHA getting to challenge NCHA squads), but it's far from fair to the higher seeds considering there are other reasonable options available. As a result, the following is my official current bracket projection:

First Round

3W St. Thomas @ 2W St. Scholastica

5E Elmira @ 4W Adrian

7E Plymouth State @ 6E Wentworth

Quarterfinals

St. Thomas/St. Scholastica @ 1W St. Norbert

Elmira/Adrian @ 1E Oswego

Plymouth/Wentworth @ 2E Norwich

4E Plattsburgh @ 3E Amherst

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, you think we're nuts or anything else on your mind?  No problem, we'd love to hear from you.  Feel free to jump with your own ideas in Josh's Definitive Tournament Speculation Thread over on the D3sports forums.

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