December 6, 2011

D3hockey.com Computer Rankings - Dec. 5

by Steve Wiitala

View women's rankings here.

 

Here are this weeks men’s D3hockey.com computer rankings.  For purposes of comparison, we have included last week’s rankings and ratings for each team, as well as where teams are ranked in this week’s D3hockey.com poll.  As we might expect, Norwich has a substantial lead on the rest of nation.  This was helped by the Cadets weekend sweep that included victories over Castleton and Skidmore.  Their weekend boosted their rating index by 50 points.  Elmira continues to hold second in the rankings and its lead over Oswego despite the fact that Oswego defeated Elmira twice on the first weekend of the season.  Since then they have played a stronger schedule and have capitalized on it by going 7-1, with the Soaring Eagles only loss being to Norwich.  Oswego since that start has gone 6-1-2 with a loss at the hands of Utica, and ties with Plattsburgh and Morrisville.

 
through games as of Sunday, December 4

Rank

Team (Poll Rank)

W

L

T

Rating

LastRank

Last Rating

1

Norwich (1)

8

0

0

773

1

723

2

Elmira   (5)

7

3

0

714

2

673

3

Oswego  (2)

8

1

2

665

4

649

4

Middlebury (8)

4

1

1

651

8

628

5

Amherst  (15)

5

1

0

647

6

640

6

Wis - River Falls  (3)

8

0

2

646

16

590

7

St. Scholastica

6

2

2

640

5

643

8

Castleton  (4)

10

1

0

636

3

654

9

Manhattanville

2

3

1

626

24

557

10

Neumann (10)

5

3

0

617

9

627

11

Western NE College

6

2

0

613

15

592

12

Utica (9)

6

3

0

613

10

621

13

St. Norbert  (6)

6

2

3

610

13

601

14

Plattsburgh  (7)

6

2

2

606

14

594

15

Williams (14)

4

0

2

605

25

556

16

Salem State

4

1

1

604

20

572

17

Concordia MN

6

3

2

602

26

552

18

St. Thomas

6

3

2

599

18

586

19

Wis. - Eau Claire (15)

7

5

0

593

11

607

20

Wis. – Superior  (12)

5

3

2

589

12

604

21

Curry

6

1

0

581

7

639

22

Wesleyan

4

3

0

566

22

564

23

Wis. – Stout

5

5

1

564

19

581

24

Hobart

5

4

0

563

31

538

25

Wis. - Stevens Point

3

6

2

554

28

551

26

Plymouth State

6

3

0

547

36

519

27

St. Olaf

7

3

2

544

16

590

28

New England College

5

3

0

541

21

569

29

Buffalo State

5

5

1

535

22

564

30

Johnson and Wales

6

1

1

534

37

511

31

Mass-Dartmouth

5

2

1

526

35

520

32

Fredonia

4

4

3

524

29

543

33

Adrian  (11)

8

3

0

518

31

538

34

St. Anselm

3

3

1

517

42

490

35

Bowdoin

3

2

1

514

26

552

36

Gustavus Adolphus

4

4

2

501

51

460

37

Potsdam

5

4

0

498

38

509

38

St. Mary's

2

8

0

495

51

460

39

Wentworth

6

3

1

494

44

489

40

Marian

5

2

3

490

42

490

41

Hamline

5

5

0

487

31

538

42

Geneseo

5

6

0

484

41

507

43

Southern Maine

3

4

0

483

58

423

44

Tufts

3

4

0

482

30

541

45

Colby

2

4

0

478

68

374

46

Milw School of Eng  (13)

8

2

0

478

47

471

47

Bethel

4

8

0

464

65

399

48

Morrisville

2

7

1

463

34

537

49

Babson

3

6

0

461

49

469

50

Lawrence

4

3

3

461

40

508

51

Westfield State

2

5

2

460

50

466

52

Mass-Boston

3

5

2

454

54

457

53

Trinity

2

4

0

454

56

438

54

St. John's

3

4

2

444

48

470

55

Cortland

3

8

1

441

45

481

56

Augsberg

3

6

0

441

46

480

57

Brockport

3

6

2

436

53

458

58

Hamilton

2

3

1

435

38

509

59

Worcester State

3

4

2

424

63

407

60

Assumption

6

5

1

418

55

444

61

Skidmore

4

6

0

408

61

416

62

Conn. College

1

4

0

398

62

412

63

Northland

3

6

1

390

72

345

64

Salve Regina

3

6

0

389

59

420

65

Becker

3

7

0

387

60

419

66

St. Michael's

1

6

1

386

67

396

67

Suffolk

2

7

0

373

64

404

68

Fitchburg State

2

5

1

372

66

397

69

Framingham State

1

4

1

372

77

239

70

Finlandia

1

9

0

368

76

269

71

U New England

2

6

1

358

57

424

72

Stonehill

3

6

0

338

73

336

73

Concordia WI

1

9

2

333

69

373

74

Franklin Pierce

1

4

2

318

70

362

75

Nichols

1

7

1

309

71

355

76

Lake Forest

1

9

0

288

73

336

77

So. New Hampshire

1

8

1

256

75

304

 

Some people observed that last week’s rankings seemed to be a bit biased in favor of the East, due to a lack of presence of Western teams in the top ten.  The situation looks a little better this week because UW-River Falls made a big jump from 16th to 6th, and a gain of 56 ratings points thanks to their weekend sweep of UW-Superior.  The other thing to note is that there are a lot of teams from the West that are just outside the top ten -- in fact there are five Western teams in the second ten.  Note that as evidenced by some of the big moves we saw this week that there is still a lot of variability in the computer rankings.

Fourteen of the 16 teams in this week’s D3hockey.com poll (the extra team because of a tie for 15th) are among to the top 20 teams in this week’s computer rankings.  The two that aren’t in the top 20 are Adrian and MSOE.  Both teams have good won-lost records, but their strength of schedule numbers are very poor.  Adrian’s opponents have a winning percentage that ranks 68th, while MSOE opponents have a winning percentage that ranks 77th -- dead last.  When we build a team’s enhanced winning percentage, we combine their record with the record of the teams that they have beaten.  The teams that Adrian has beaten have a winning percentage of 0.3059 and the teams that MSOE has beaten have a winning percentage of 0.2118.

The other side of the coin revolves around some teams that are in the top fifteen of these rankings but not ranked in the human poll. Probably most interesting case is Manhattanville.  The Valiants are in exactly the opposite situation as MSOE. With a 2-3-1 record, they are below 0.500 but still show up ranked ninth here. The teams that Manhattanville has played have strong records, and the fact that they have beaten Neumann and Utica, and tied Williams means that their “inside” numbers are very, very good.  Its strength of schedule is second in the nation and when we calculate their enhanced winning percentage, they rank second in that category as well – behind only Norwich.  This suggests that Manhattanville has the potential to be successful as the season progresses based on their performance against very strong opposition.

The standard warning for this early data still applies.  It is early in the season, and the indices can fluctuate considerably at this stage for teams which have played only a handful of games. For example, Manhattanville has played only six games so far so its their rating could fluctuate significantly after playing just a few more games.  As always, if you have questions or comments, feel free to drop in to the D3hockey.com message board and leave a message.

 

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.

 ~
Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.
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Sunday, Nov. 23: All times Eastern
W:
Final
Buffalo State 3, at Chatham 1
W:
Final
Elmira 7, at Utica 5
W:
Final
Middlebury 7, at Trinity (Conn.) 2
Box Score
W:
Final
Neumann 2, at William Smith 1
Box Score
No contests today.
Sunday, Nov. 23: All times Eastern
W:
Final
Elmira 7, at Utica 5
W:
Final
Middlebury 7, at Trinity (Conn.) 2
Box Score

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