December 13, 2011

D3hockey.com Computer Rankings - Dec. 13

by Steve Wiitala

View women's rankings here

 

through games played as of December 11

Rank

Team (Poll Rank)

W

L

T

Rating

Prev. Rank

Prev. Rating

1

Norwich (1)

8

0

1

754

1

773

2

Amherst (10)

7

1

0

676

5

647

3

Oswego (2)

9

1

2

671

3

665

4

Elmira (9)

7

5

0

652

2

714

5

Wis - River Falls (4)

9

1

2

647

6

646

6

Castleton (3)

10

1

0

645

8

636

7

Plattsburgh (5)

6

2

3

629

14

606

8

St. Scholastica (15)

7

3

2

628

7

640

9

Concordia MN

6

3

2

619

17

602

10

St. Norbert (6)

7

3

3

616

13

610

11

Wis. - Eau Claire (14)

8

6

0

614

19

593

12

Utica (7)

8

3

0

612

11

613

13

St. Thomas

8

3

2

610

18

599

14

Plymouth State

8

2

0

589

26

547

15

Neumann (8)

7

3

0

587

10

617

16

Wesleyan

5

3

0

578

22

566

17

Manhattanville

4

4

1

577

9

626

18

Williams

5

1

2

574

15

605

19

Curry

7

1

0

570

21

581

20

Fredonia

6

4

3

570

32

524

21

Buffalo State

6

5

1

567

29

535

22

Wis. - Stevens Point

5

6

2

567

25

554

23

Wis. – Superior (11)

7

4

2

559

20

589

24

St. Olaf

7

3

2

558

27

544

25

Western NE College

6

3

0

557

11

613

26

Middlebury (13)

4

3

1

555

4

651

27

Hobart

5

6

0

540

24

563

28

Salem State

5

3

1

530

16

604

29

Wis. - Stout

5

7

1

529

23

564

30

Geneseo

7

6

0

525

42

484

31

New England College

6

4

0

524

28

541

32

Gustavus Adolphus

6

4

2

523

36

501

33

Adrian (12)

8

3

0

520

33

518

34

St. Mary's

3

8

0

520

38

495

35

Southern Maine

4

4

0

517

43

483

36

Mass-Dartmouth

6

3

1

515

31

526

37

Potsdam

5

5

0

511

37

498

38

Bethel

5

8

0

508

47

464

39

St. Anselm

4

3

1

503

34

517

40

Brockport

3

6

2

498

57

436

41

Hamline

5

6

0

496

41

487

42

Hamilton

3

4

1

488

58

435

43

Johnson and Wales

6

3

1

487

30

534

44

Mass-Boston

4

5

2

485

52

454

45

Bowdoin

5

3

1

484

35

514

46

Wentworth

6

4

1

473

39

494

47

Cortland

4

9

1

472

55

441

48

Worcester State

4

4

2

469

59

424

49

Marian

6

3

4

463

40

490

50

Milw School of Eng

9

3

0

463

45

478

51

Tufts

4

5

0

461

44

482

52

Morrisville

2

9

1

456

48

463

53

Babson

3

7

0

449

49

461

54

Assumption

6

5

1

448

60

418

55

Trinity

2

5

0

438

52

454

56

Augsberg

3

6

0

436

55

441

57

Westfield State

2

6

2

433

51

460

58

Lawrence

4

3

3

429

49

461

59

St. John's

3

6

2

424

54

444

60

Skidmore

4

6

0

423

61

408

61

Colby

2

6

0

419

45

478

62

St. Michael's

1

6

1

404

66

386

63

Stonehill

5

6

1

403

72

338

64

Becker

3

7

0

400

65

387

65

Fitchburg State

3

6

1

391

68

372

66

Framingham State

1

6

2

391

68

372

67

Conn. College

2

6

0

375

62

398

68

Northland

3

6

1

373

63

390

69

U New England

2

6

2

359

71

358

70

Salve Regina

3

8

0

354

64

389

71

Suffolk

2

8

0

347

67

373

72

Finlandia

1

11

0

339

70

368

73

Nichols

2

7

1

328

75

309

74

Concordia WI

1

10

2

311

73

333

75

Franklin Pierce

1

5

3

301

74

318

76

Lake Forest

1

9

0

272

76

288

77

So. New Hampshire

1

9

1

255

77

256

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In this week’s rankings, we see that some the rankings are beginning to stabilize.  There were a few teams that had some dramatic changes in their rankings, however.  Most notable was the drop exhibited by Middlebury.  The Panthers lost 96 points and 22 positions in the rankings when it suffered a sweep at the hands of Hamilton and Amherst.

Poll voters continued to support Middlebury, leaving them at No. 13, though that was a drop from its previous spot at No. 8.  Elmira lost 64 points and dropped from second to fourth in the computer rankings.

As usual, there are plenty of comparisons that are within the margin of error.  This week, we will use Elmira’s rankings to illustrate how that concept works.  The following table contains margin of error approximations for teams having played a specified number of games:

 

Games

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

7

29

28

27

26

25

24

24

23

8

28

27

26

25

24

24

23

22

9

27

26

25

24

24

23

22

22

10

26

25

24

24

23

22

22

21

11

25

24

24

23

22

22

21

21

12

24

24

23

22

22

21

21

20

13

24

23

22

22

21

21

20

20

14

23

22

22

21

21

20

20

20

 

Let’s look at a comparison between Elmira and Wisconsin-River Falls.  Elmira has played 12 games, and River Falls has also played 12 games.  Reading the table, the margin of error for a comparison between teams who have each played 12 games is 21 points.  Since the difference in the ratings is 5, the difference in the ratings is not statistically significant.  In other words, we can’t definitively conclude that either team should be ranked ahead of the other.

The same conclusion applies when comparing Elmira and Castleton, for example.  As we go down the list, we find that the margin of error for a comparison between Elmira and Plattsburgh is 22 points.  Since the difference between the two team’s rankings is 23 points, we can conclude that Elmira leads Plattsburgh in terms of the criteria that we use to rank the teams.  Elmira’s combination of W/L record, strength of schedule, and strength of record of defeated teams places them ahead of Plattsburgh.

As you go through the rankings you may notice that there are a number of situations, such as the grouping of teams from 14th to 22nd  in which large blocks of teams all fall within a small range of numbers.  We can’t make a lot of definitive conclusions about the comparisons between those teams from those rankings.  Statistically, it’s hard to tell those teams apart.

As the season goes on, the margin of error becomes smaller and the rankings become more stable.  Last week provided lots of movement, but also a lot of evidence that the rankings in the polls are pretty well justified.

 

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.

 ~
Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.
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Sunday, Nov. 23: All times Eastern
W:
1:00 PM
Buffalo State at Chatham
W:
3:00 PM
Elmira at Utica
Live Stats Video
W:
4:00 PM
Middlebury at Trinity (Conn.)
Live Stats Video
W:
4:00 PM
Neumann at William Smith
No contests today.
Sunday, Nov. 23: All times Eastern
W:
3:00 PM
Elmira at Utica
Live Stats Video
W:
4:00 PM
Middlebury at Trinity (Conn.)
Live Stats Video

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