Men's Computer Rankings - Feb. 14, 2012

by Steve Wiitala

As we look back on this week’s results and the impact of those games on these rankings, we begin to see just how dominant the top three teams in the rankings have been this year. Despite losses to lesser ranked teams, both Norwich and Plattsburgh essentially hold on to their positions in the rankings.

With Norwich losing to unheralded Skidmore, and Plattsburgh losing for only the second time ever to Brockport, it might have been expected that both of those teams would take a tumble in the rankings. It did not work out that way however, as Norwich turned right around and defeated a strong Castleton team, and Plattsburgh salvaged a split on the weekend with a victory over Genneseo. Both the Cadets and the Cardinals lost some ratings points, and with Oswego’s weekend sweep, the Lakers move back into the top spot just ahead of Norwich, but once again within the statistical margin of error.

The identity of the top 15 teams remains constant, except that Wisconsin-Stevens Point falls out after losing to St. Norbert. (Last week’s top 15 actually had 16 teams because of a tie for 15^th between Bowdoin and Hobart.) The rankings of all of the teams between 6^th and 15^th places seem very muddled. There is little to choose between consecutive teams and the distance from 6^th to 15^th is only 26 points. There many different ways to legitimately rank those teams, and that seems reflected in the fact that the voters in the polls have a real diversity of views on how to sort out the middle and bottom end of the top 15 each week.

The most interesting move outside the top 15 is the appearance of Middlebury in position 17. Many people had written off the Panthers after their mid-season struggles, but in the last few weeks, they have consistently gained ground in both ratings points and rankings. Three weeks ago, they stood in 28^th position with 527 ratings points, last week they were 23^rd with 551 points, and now they have reached 17^th with 571 points. It is conceivable that Middlebury could finish the regular season with a position inside the top fifteen.

We don’t often look at happenings much farther down the list, but there are a few notable happenings to report. Both Skidmore and Brockport made big gains based on weekend sweeps that included the aforementioned big upsets. They each picked up 35 points and 13 positions on the weekend. Both moves were fueled by the fact that they received big bumps in the winning percentage of teams that they have defeated, one of the key measures in these rankings.

At the far “southern” extreme of these rankings, Southern New Hampshire has achieved the dubious distinction of falling off the scale. The minimum possible rating is 200, and that is position at which SNHU stands right now.

This week most conferences wrap the regular season, while the NCHA starts post-season play. The most interesting game on the schedule is, of course, the second Plattsburgh – Oswego game, which will have consequences here for our computer rankings. Ignoring the effects on the rankings of the other games on the schedule, an Oswego win would cement their position at the top with a rating of 681, while a Plattsburgh win would move them just ahead of Oswego at 667 to 663, and put Norwich back on top with 669. In other words, there is very little to choose between these teams. By all indications, these three will end up being the top three seeds in the East come NCAA tournament time.

through games as of Monday, February 13

	School (Poll Rank)	W	L	T	Rating	Rank Change	Rating Change
1	Oswego	19	2	2	671	1	7
2	Norwich	19	2	1	668	(1)	(6)
3	Plattsburgh	16	3	4	653	0	(10)
4	Amherst	18	3	1	641	0	1
5	Utica	15	7	2	632	(1)	(8)
6	Elmira	14	7	2	619	1	(2)
7	St. Thomas	17	3	2	618	1	3
8	Manhattanville	11	6	3	616	(2)	(18)
9	St. Norbert	15	5	5	613	2	6
10	Neumann	13	6	2	611	3	20
11	Wis - River Falls	16	7	2	607	(2)	(7)
12	St. Scholastica	14	7	4	604	2	16
13	Castleton	16	5	2	598	(3)	(10)
14	Bowdoin	13	4	3	596	1	14
15	Hobart	12	10	1	593	0	11
16	Wis. - Stevens Point	12	9	4	584	(4)	(8)
17	Middlebury	11	8	3	571	6	20
18	Wis. - Eau Claire	11	11	3	566	(1)	(8)
19	Salem State	12	7	3	561	2	3
20	Wesleyan	12	8	2	558	(2)	(13)
21	Williams	9	7	5	552	(2)	(16)
22	Gustavus Adolphus	12	7	4	551	(2)	(10)
23	Fredonia	11	9	3	549	2	1
24	Concordia MN	10	9	4	548	(3)	(10)
25	Wentworth	15	6	1	543	0	(5)
26	Adrian	17	5	1	541	(2)	(8)
27	Buffalo State	11	11	2	539	1	(6)
27	Wis. - Superior	9	9	7	539	0	(7)
29	Plymouth State	13	6	2	538	2	13
30	Mass-Dartmouth	13	7	2	532	(1)	(11)
31	Brockport	9	12	3	528	13	35
32	Mass-Boston	12	8	3	525	0	1
33	St. Olaf	11	7	5	517	0	(3)
34	Milw School of Eng	17	5	1	516	(1)	(4)
35	Curry	12	8	2	514	(5)	(14)
36	St. Anselm	11	8	3	511	6	17
37	Geneseo	12	11	1	505	1	4
37	Skidmore	10	11	2	505	13	34
39	New England College	9	10	4	500	(6)	(20)
39	Tufts	10	10	2	500	(3)	(13)
41	Marian	11	8	4	499	(1)	3
42	Hamilton	8	11	3	498	3	8
43	Babson	8	12	3	494	(5)	(7)
44	Southern Maine	8	10	4	491	2	8
45	Trinity	7	11	2	490	(8)	(13)
46	St. John's	10	11	2	485	2	6
46	Wis. - Stout	8	16	1	485	(5)	(10)
48	Potsdam	8	12	2	481	(6)	(13)
49	Western NE College	12	11	0	479	(2)	(3)
50	Hamline	10	13	2	478	(1)	6
51	Lawrence	11	9	3	475	1	11
52	Conn. College	5	13	3	467	1	8
53	St. Mary's	4	17	2	466	2	10
54	Augsberg	9	13	1	458	(1)	(1)
55	Johnson and Wales	13	7	3	454	4	12
56	Fitchburg State	8	11	3	452	(5)	(17)
57	Bethel	7	14	2	451	(1)	(1)
58	Westfield State	5	11	5	448	2	10
59	Worcester State	8	11	3	447	(2)	2
60	Colby	5	14	1	430	4	27
60	Cortland	5	17	1	430	1	(7)
62	Morrisville	4	18	1	429	(4)	(15)
62	Nichols	10	12	1	429	1	20
64	Assumption	12	8	1	419	2	24
64	Becker	8	13	2	419	(2)	6
66	Framingham State	4	13	4	404	2	12
67	St. Michael's	6	14	2	389	(2)	(8)
68	Finlandia	8	15	0	381	(1)	(13)
69	Northland	6	14	3	353	0	(11)
70	Stonehill	7	11	2	335	0	(8)
71	Franklin Pierce	5	10	4	320	0	0
72	Salve Regina	5	16	0	313	1	19
73	U New England	3	17	2	308	(1)	(9)
74	Concordia WI	1	18	3	294	0	1
75	Suffolk	2	20	0	285	0	4
76	Lake Forest	3	18	0	248	0	(5)
77	So. New Hampshire	1	19	1	200	0	0

Margin of error:

	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
22	15
23	15	15
24	15	15	15
25	15	15	15	14
26	15	15	14	14	14
27	15	14	14	14	14	14
28	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
29	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.

Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.

With another week of play in the books, we look at this weeks computer rankings.
The first and most obvious change is that Oswego has displaced Norwich at the top
of the list this week. This was not totally unexpected, as Norwich spent the weekend
playing two games against St. Michaels (ranked 68th), and as a consequence, their
strength of schedule components were reduced. On the weekend, the Cadets lost
14 points. Oswego also lost points for similar reasons (they played Cortland and
Hamilton), but their 6 point loss was enough to move them ahead of Norwich. This
is a good illustration of the fact that small fluctuations in the ratings can cause
changes in rank without any major events. The difference between Norwich and
Oswego was not statistically significant last week, and it’s not statistically significant
this week when they are flipped the other way. At this point we can certainly
say that Oswego and Norwich are very close statistically, and Plattsburgh is not
far behind. The comparison between Plattsburgh and Oswego is just outside
the margin of error, and then there is a gap as we move down the rankings from
Plattsburgh to Castleton.

Manhattanville and Utica made big moves this week, as Manhattanville’s sweep
over Neumann moved them all the way from 16th position to 6th, and Utica’s tie with
Elmira and win over Amherst moved them into 7th on the list. Another impressive
move came from St. Scholastica, who moved up 5 positions and 21 points by
sweeping Wisconsin-River Falls. Beyond those changes, the rankings held pretty
steady for the most part, and with the exception of Adrian, the top 15 in the poll line
up very well with the top 15 in these rankings.

We haven’t paid a lot of attention to the bottom of these rankings, but we did see
one interesting move on the part of Nichols, who by going 2-0 for the week gained
41 points in the ratings. That’s an impressive change for this time of the season.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
13

Team (Poll Rank)
Oswego (2)
Norwich (1)
Plattsburgh (3)
Castleton (4)
Elmira (6)
Manhattanville
Utica (7)
Amherst (8)
St. Scholastica (14)
Neumann (13)
St. Norbert (5)
Wis. - Eau Claire (12)
St. Thomas (10)

W

14
13
12
14
12
8
12
12
11
12
11
11
13

L

2
1
2
3
5
4
5
3
5
5
4
6
3

T

2
1
4
0
2
3
1
1
3
0
4
2
2

Rating
671
666
650
628
626
623
620
613
611
609
607
607
601

Change
in Rank

1
(1)
0
0
0
10
6
(2)
5
(1)
(3)
(2)
(1)

Change
in Rating

(6)
(14)
(8)
(7)
8
37
23
(4)
21
(2)
(5)
(1)
(1)

14
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
30
32
33
34
35
36
36
38
39
39
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

Williams (11)
Wis - River Falls (9)
Bowdoin
Fredonia
Hobart
Buffalo State
Wis. - Stevens Point
Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian (15)
Wesleyan
Salem State
Concordia MN
Mass-Dartmouth
Wis. - Superior
Middlebury
Curry
Mass-Boston
Wentworth
St. Olaf
Plymouth State
Geneseo
New England College
Brockport
Wis. - Stout
Marian
Southern Maine
Tufts
Western NE College
Hamilton
St. Mary's
Milw School of Eng
St. John's
St. Anselm
Trinity
Bethel
Johnson and Wales
Augsberg
Potsdam
Hamline
Fitchburg State
Cortland
Babson
Morrisville
Becker
Conn. College
Skidmore

9
12
10
9
10
9
8
10
13
10
9
8
10
8
7
8
9
9
8
9
10
8
7
7
8
5
6
9
7
4
12
6
6
6
6
10
6
6
7
6
4
5
3
7
3
5

2
5
3
6
7
8
8
5
4
5
5
8
5
8
6
6
6
6
4
5
9
6
10
11
5
6
8
7
8
12
5
9
5
7
11
5
10
9
10
8
13
11
14
9
10
10

4
2
2
3
0
2
3
2
0
1
2
3
1
3
2
1
2
1
5
2
0
2
2
1
4
4
1
0
1
1
0
2
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2

597
596
591
578
572
572
571
569
563
560
557
545
535
530
527
525
523
523
521
519
516
512
511
511
509
505
505
502
496
490
489
487
481
477
471
469
468
466
466
464
462
459
451
444
443
432

(3)
(8)
6
2
5
(4)
(3)
(3)
4
(2)
11
(5)
(3)
1
(3)
10
11
(3)
(2)
(1)
(4)
(1)
7
(10)
(1)
0
(5)
(9)
(4)
1
7
7
(4)
7
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(3)
8
(4)
3
(3)
(1)
1
(2)

(10)
(20)
26
7
22
(17)
(6)
(3)
20
(8)
35
(24)
(15)
(5)
(20)
18
17
(12)
(11)
(7)
(16)
(13)
12
(25)
(9)
(2)
(17)
(24)
(13)
(6)
26
26
(21)
28
(2)
(9)
(18)
(28)
(2)
53
(4)
25
(1)
5
11
(6)

60
60
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77

Margin of error

Worcester State
Lawrence
Westfield State
Framingham State
Assumption
Colby
Northland
Nichols
St. Michael's
Stonehill
U New England
Finlandia
Salve Regina
Suffolk
Concordia WI
Franklin Pierce
Lake Forest
So. New Hampshire

6
5
3
3
8
2
6
5
3
5.5
3
5
3
2
1
3.5
1
1

8
9
9
9
7
13
8
11
10
7.5
10
12
11
13
12
8.5
14
15

3
3
3
3
1
0
3
1
2
1
2
0
0
0
3
3
0
1

430
430
424
409
405
404
393
382
375
372
345
330
310
306
305
291
237
217

(1)
(6)
3
3
(1)
(3)
(2)
3
(1)
(1)
(1)
0
0
0
1
(1)
0
0

(2)
(11)
28
14
0
(5)
(7)
41
0
1
(12)
0
(14)
(8)
12
(8)
(18)
(14)

15

16

17

18

19

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

12
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19

13

20
20
20
19
19
19
18

14

20
19
19
19
18
18

19
19
18
18
18

18
18
18
17

18
17
17

17
17

17

SCOREBOARD
MEN'S TOP 15
WOMEN'S TOP 10

No contests today.

	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
22	15
23	15	15
24	15	15	15
25	15	15	15	14
26	15	15	14	14	14
27	15	14	14	14	14	14
28	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
29	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13

	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
22	15
23	15	15
24	15	15	15
25	15	15	15	14
26	15	15	14	14	14
27	15	14	14	14	14	14
28	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
29	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13

	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
22	15
23	15	15
24	15	15	15
25	15	15	15	14
26	15	15	14	14	14
27	15	14	14	14	14	14
28	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
29	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13