February 29, 2012

Men's Computer Rankings - Feb. 29, 2012

by Steve Wiitala

 

After a wild playoff weekend with several upsets and some near upsets, here are this week’s computer rankings. 

The headline is that the top four teams remain unchanged.  Neumann, on the other hand, is the week's big mover as after a pair of overtime victories in the ECAC West tournament the Knights moved up 21 points and 5 places in the rankings, up to No. 5 overall.  A move as large as 21 points in the ratings is very unusual at this stage of the season.  It takes exactly the combination that we saw in Neumann – significant wins over strong opponents. 

The Knights have served notice that they want to be considered as a factor in NCAA Pool C discussions, and this week's NCAA Rankings show a similar trend.  The NCAA still has Neumann ranked behind Elmira, and in our rankings the difference between the two is a scant single point.  If Neumann defeats Hobart in the ECAC West Finals, that might be enough to put it ahead of Soaring Eagles and cement it as a prime candidate for a bid out of the ECAC West. 

The decisions ahead by the NCAA committee are going to be very interesting.  Josh Carey will look at all the ramifications and projections in his Bracketology report.  It’s an exciting time as we come to Championship Weekend and Selection Sunday.  Lets take a look at the Ratings and Rankings of the teams still left playing:

 

ECAC East

Norwich (2nd, 665 points), Southern Maine (38th, 499), Castleton (14th, 593), Skidmore (32nd, 522)

 

ECAC Northeast

Wentworth (23rd, 566), Western New England (42nd, 486), Nichols (60th, 432), Curry (33rd, 517)

 

ECAC West

Hobart (9th, 621), Neumann (5th, 630)

 

MASCAC

Worcester State (58th, 446), Plymouth State (20th, 561), University of Massachusetts- Dartmouth (28th, 539), Salem State (20th, 561)

 

MCHA

Lawrence (55th, 453),  Adrian (24th, 551), MSOE (36th, 509),  Marian (44th, 485)

 

MIAC

St. Olaf (30th, 534), Gustavus Adolphus (19th, 586)

 

NCHA

WI- Stevens Point (13th, 594), St. Norbert (7th, 626)

 

NESCAC

Williams (22nd, 557), Amherst (3rd, 660), Middlebury (18th, 581), Bowdoin (10th, 606)

 

SUNYAC

Oswego State (1st, 689), Plattsburgh (4th, 653)

 

Certainly there are some interesting games left on the docket.  The ECAC West and SUNYAC matchups provide the highest profile contests among the tournaments that have narrowed the fields down to two teams, and this is no surprise as Hobart/Neumann and Plattsburgh/Oswego are games that are almost certainly top match-ups.

The NESCAC foursome is the highest ranked group of four among the leagues that are now at the semifinal stage.  In the MASCAC we have the possibility of a match-up between two teams with identical computer rankings, which suggests the championship there will be hotly contested.  We also have the possibility in the ECAC East of another Norwich/Castleton contest.  Playoff hockey is here.  Once this week is over, we will know who gets to go for the NCAA title and we can take a look at how the tournament teams stack up with the computer rankings.

 

through games played as of February 27

 

School (Poll Rank) [NCAA Rank]

W

L

T

Rating

Rank Change

Rating Change

1

Oswego (1) [E1]

22

2

2

689

0

3

2

Norwich (2) [E2]

21

2

2

665

0

(7)

3

Amherst (3) [E3]

21

3

1

660

0

0

4

Plattsburgh (4) [E4]

18

4

4

653

0

7

5

Neumann (6) [E7]

15

7

3

630

5

21

6

Elmira (7) [E5]

15

8

3

629

(1)

(6)

7

St. Norbert (5) [W1]

16

5

5

626

0

6

8

Utica (14) [E9]

15

9

2

624

(2)

(7)

9

Hobart (14) [E8]

15

10

1

621

(1)

5

10

Bowdoin (10) [E6]

16

4

3

606

2

2

11

St. Thomas (9) [W5]

18

5

2

605

(2)

(9)

12

Manhattanville [E11]

13

9

3

600

(1)

(8)

13

WI - Stevens Point (11) [W3]

14

10

4

594

4

9

14

Castleton (8) [E13]

18

6

2

593

1

1

14

St. Scholastica  (13) [W4]

15

8

5

593

(1)

(5)

14

WI- River Falls [W7]

16

9

2

593

0

(1)

17

WI - Eau Claire [W2]

13

12

3

583

(1)

(6)

18

Middlebury [E10]

13

9

3

581

0

9

19

Gustavus Adolphus

14

7

5

566

1

5

20

Plymouth State

15

6

3

561

(1)

(3)

20

Salem State

14

8

3

561

1

2

22

Williams [E12]

11

8

5

557

1

3

23

Wentworth [E14]

17

6

1

556

(1)

(2)

24

Adrian (12)

19

5

1

551

1

2

25

Buffalo State [E15]

13

12

2

542

1

(5)

25

Wesleyan

13

10

2

542

(1)

(8)

27

WI - Superior

10

10

7

541

0

(1)

28

Mass-Dartmouth

16

8

2

539

0

1

29

Fredonia

12

11

3

538

1

7

30

St. Olaf [W6]

12

8

6

534

4

18

31

Concordia MN

11

10

4

531

(2)

(1)

32

Skidmore

12

12

2

520

4

7

33

Brockport

9

13

3

517

1

1

33

Curry

13

9

2

517

0

(4)

35

Mass-Boston

13

10

3

515

(4)

(10)

36

Milw School of Eng

20

6

1

509

(4)

(14)

37

St. Anselm

13

8

5

502

0

(4)

38

Southern Maine

9

10

6

499

2

4

39

Geneseo

13

12

1

495

(1)

(8)

40

Babson

9

13

4

494

(2)

(9)

41

Trinity

8

13

2

490

0

(4)

42

Hamilton

8

14

3

486

2

0

42

Western NE College

14

10

1

486

5

7

44

Marian

13

8

4

485

2

1

45

Tufts

11

12

2

483

(3)

(9)

45

Wis. - Stout

8

17

2

483

(2)

(4)

47

New England College

9

12

5

478

(2)

(7)

48

Augsberg

10

14

1

476

0

(2)

49

Hamline

10

13

2

475

1

0

50

St. John's

11

13

2

472

(1)

(5)

51

St. Mary's

5

18

2

470

0

0

52

Westfield State

7

13

5

464

0

(1)

53

Potsdam

8

16

2

458

0

(6)

54

Fitchburg State

9

13

4

455

0

(1)

55

Lawrence

13

10

4

453

(1)

(3)

56

Bethel

8

15

2

451

0

(2)

57

Conn. College

5

15

3

450

0

(1)

58

Worcester State

9

14

3

446

0

(3)

59

Johnson and Wales

13

10

3

436

0

(8)

60

Nichols

11

12

2

432

0

4

61

Cortland

6

18

1

424

0

(3)

62

Colby

6

15

1

421

0

(2)

63

Morrisville

5

19

1

418

(1)

(5)

64

Assumption

13

10

1

409

2

7

65

Framingham State

6

15

4

400

(1)

(16)

66

Becker

9

15

2

395

(1)

(8)

67

Stonehill

9

11

3

371

2

8

68

Finlandia

7

17

1

370

(1)

4

69

St. Michael's

6

18

2

357

(1)

(7)

70

Northland

6

16

3

335

0

(4)

71

Lake Forest

5

20

0

331

5

54

72

U New England

4

19

2

317

(1)

(6)

73

Franklin Pierce

5

12

4

297

(1)

(9)

74

Salve Regina

5

18

0

296

(1)

(6)

75

Suffolk

3

21

0

280

(1)

(6)

76

Concordia WI

1

20

3

279

(1)

(1)

77

So. New Hampshire

2

20

1

198

0

(12)

Margin of error: 13 points

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.


 ~
Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.
With another week of play in the books, we look at this weeks computer rankings.
The first and most obvious change is that Oswego has displaced Norwich at the top
of the list this week. This was not totally unexpected, as Norwich spent the weekend
playing two games against St. Michaels (ranked 68th), and as a consequence, their
strength of schedule components were reduced. On the weekend, the Cadets lost
14 points. Oswego also lost points for similar reasons (they played Cortland and
Hamilton), but their 6 point loss was enough to move them ahead of Norwich. This
is a good illustration of the fact that small fluctuations in the ratings can cause
changes in rank without any major events. The difference between Norwich and
Oswego was not statistically significant last week, and it’s not statistically significant
this week when they are flipped the other way. At this point we can certainly
say that Oswego and Norwich are very close statistically, and Plattsburgh is not
far behind. The comparison between Plattsburgh and Oswego is just outside
the margin of error, and then there is a gap as we move down the rankings from
Plattsburgh to Castleton.

Manhattanville and Utica made big moves this week, as Manhattanville’s sweep
over Neumann moved them all the way from 16th position to 6th, and Utica’s tie with
Elmira and win over Amherst moved them into 7th on the list. Another impressive
move came from St. Scholastica, who moved up 5 positions and 21 points by
sweeping Wisconsin-River Falls. Beyond those changes, the rankings held pretty
steady for the most part, and with the exception of Adrian, the top 15 in the poll line
up very well with the top 15 in these rankings.

We haven’t paid a lot of attention to the bottom of these rankings, but we did see
one interesting move on the part of Nichols, who by going 2-0 for the week gained
41 points in the ratings. That’s an impressive change for this time of the season.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
13

Team (Poll Rank)
Oswego (2)
Norwich (1)
Plattsburgh (3)
Castleton (4)
Elmira (6)
Manhattanville
Utica (7)
Amherst (8)
St. Scholastica (14)
Neumann (13)
St. Norbert (5)
Wis. - Eau Claire (12)
St. Thomas (10)

W

14
13
12
14
12
8
12
12
11
12
11
11
13

L

2
1
2
3
5
4
5
3
5
5
4
6
3

T

2
1
4
0
2
3
1
1
3
0
4
2
2

Rating
671
666
650
628
626
623
620
613
611
609
607
607
601

Change
in Rank

1
(1)
0
0
0
10
6
(2)
5
(1)
(3)
(2)
(1)

Change
in Rating

(6)
(14)
(8)
(7)
8
37
23
(4)
21
(2)
(5)
(1)
(1)

14
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
30
32
33
34
35
36
36
38
39
39
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

Williams (11)
Wis - River Falls (9)
Bowdoin
Fredonia
Hobart
Buffalo State
Wis. - Stevens Point
Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian (15)
Wesleyan
Salem State
Concordia MN
Mass-Dartmouth
Wis. - Superior
Middlebury
Curry
Mass-Boston
Wentworth
St. Olaf
Plymouth State
Geneseo
New England College
Brockport
Wis. - Stout
Marian
Southern Maine
Tufts
Western NE College
Hamilton
St. Mary's
Milw School of Eng
St. John's
St. Anselm
Trinity
Bethel
Johnson and Wales
Augsberg
Potsdam
Hamline
Fitchburg State
Cortland
Babson
Morrisville
Becker
Conn. College
Skidmore

9
12
10
9
10
9
8
10
13
10
9
8
10
8
7
8
9
9
8
9
10
8
7
7
8
5
6
9
7
4
12
6
6
6
6
10
6
6
7
6
4
5
3
7
3
5

2
5
3
6
7
8
8
5
4
5
5
8
5
8
6
6
6
6
4
5
9
6
10
11
5
6
8
7
8
12
5
9
5
7
11
5
10
9
10
8
13
11
14
9
10
10

4
2
2
3
0
2
3
2
0
1
2
3
1
3
2
1
2
1
5
2
0
2
2
1
4
4
1
0
1
1
0
2
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2

597
596
591
578
572
572
571
569
563
560
557
545
535
530
527
525
523
523
521
519
516
512
511
511
509
505
505
502
496
490
489
487
481
477
471
469
468
466
466
464
462
459
451
444
443
432

(3)
(8)
6
2
5
(4)
(3)
(3)
4
(2)
11
(5)
(3)
1
(3)
10
11
(3)
(2)
(1)
(4)
(1)
7
(10)
(1)
0
(5)
(9)
(4)
1
7
7
(4)
7
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(3)
8
(4)
3
(3)
(1)
1
(2)

(10)
(20)
26
7
22
(17)
(6)
(3)
20
(8)
35
(24)
(15)
(5)
(20)
18
17
(12)
(11)
(7)
(16)
(13)
12
(25)
(9)
(2)
(17)
(24)
(13)
(6)
26
26
(21)
28
(2)
(9)
(18)
(28)
(2)
53
(4)
25
(1)
5
11
(6)

60
60
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77

Margin of error

Worcester State
Lawrence
Westfield State
Framingham State
Assumption
Colby
Northland
Nichols
St. Michael's
Stonehill
U New England
Finlandia
Salve Regina
Suffolk
Concordia WI
Franklin Pierce
Lake Forest
So. New Hampshire

6
5
3
3
8
2
6
5
3
5.5
3
5
3
2
1
3.5
1
1

8
9
9
9
7
13
8
11
10
7.5
10
12
11
13
12
8.5
14
15

3
3
3
3
1
0
3
1
2
1
2
0
0
0
3
3
0
1

430
430
424
409
405
404
393
382
375
372
345
330
310
306
305
291
237
217

(1)
(6)
3
3
(1)
(3)
(2)
3
(1)
(1)
(1)
0
0
0
1
(1)
0
0

(2)
(11)
28
14
0
(5)
(7)
41
0
1
(12)
0
(14)
(8)
12
(8)
(18)
(14)

15

16

17

18

19

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

12
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19

13

20
20
20
19
19
19
18

14

20
19
19
19
18
18

19
19
18
18
18

18
18
18
17

18
17
17

17
17

17
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Friday, Nov. 21: All times Eastern
M:
6:30 PM
Bates (ACHA) at Daniel Webster
M:
7:00 PM
Connecticut College at Williams
Live Stats Video
M:
Start of 1st
Colby 0
Bowdoin 0
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Hamilton at Wesleyan
Video
M:
7:00 PM
Tufts at Middlebury
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Southern Maine at University of New England
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
St. Michael's at New England College
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
SUNY Canton at Potsdam State
Live Stats Video Audio
M:
7:00 PM
Elmira at Hobart
Live Stats Video
M:
Start of 1st
Castleton State 0
Mass-Boston 0
Live Stats Live Stats Video
M:
Start of 1st
Skidmore 0
Babson 0
Live Stats Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Norwich at Saint Anselm
Video Audio
M:
7:00 PM
Geneseo State at Cortland State
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Brockport State at Oswego State
Live Stats Video Audio
M:
7:00 PM
Manhattanville at Nazareth
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Morrisville State at Plattsburgh State
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Buffalo State at Fredonia State
Live Stats
M:
7:00 PM
Neumann at Utica
Live Stats Video
M:
7:30 PM
Amherst at Trinity (Conn.)
Live Stats
M:
8:00 PM
Saint Mary's (Minn.) at St. John's
Live Stats Video Audio
M:
8:00 PM
Adrian at UW-Eau Claire
Video Tickets
M:
8:00 PM
Augsburg at Concordia (Wis.)
Video
M:
8:00 PM
Lake Forest at UW-Stevens Point
Live Stats Video Audio
M:
8:00 PM
UW-Superior at Northland
Video Audio
M:
8:00 PM
Concordia-Moorhead at Bethel
Live Stats Video
M:
8:05 PM
Lawrence at UW-River Falls
Live Stats Audio
M:
8:30 PM
Gustavus Adolphus at Hamline
Live Stats
M:
8:30 PM
Finlandia at UW-Stout
Live Stats Video
M:
8:30 PM
St. Olaf at St. Thomas
Video Video
W:
3:00 PM
Potsdam State at Oswego State
Live Stats Video
W:
Final
at UW-River Falls 7, UW-Eau Claire 1
Box Score
W:
Final - OT
Saint Anselm 1, at Mass-Boston 1
Box Score
W:
Final - OT
at Southern Maine 3, University of New England 2
Box Score
W:
2nd - 17:58
Holy Cross 1
Plymouth State 0
Live Stats Video
W:
6:40 PM
New England College at Nichols
Live Stats
W:
Start of 1st
Franklin Pierce 0
St. Michael's 0
Live Stats
W:
7:00 PM
Bowdoin at Colby
Video
W:
7:00 PM
Hamilton at Connecticut College
W:
7:00 PM
Wesleyan at Amherst
Video
W:
7:00 PM
Stevenson at SUNY Canton
Live Stats Audio
W:
7:00 PM
Castleton State at Manhattanville
Live Stats Video
W:
7:30 PM
Norwich at Salve Regina
Live Stats Video
W:
8:00 PM
St. Catherine at Augsburg
W:
8:00 PM
Hamline at Gustavus Adolphus
W:
8:00 PM
St. Scholastica at Lake Forest
Video
W:
8:00 PM
Adrian at St. Norbert
Video
W:
8:00 PM
Saint Benedict at Saint Mary's (Minn.)
W:
8:00 PM
Bethel at Concordia-Moorhead
Live Stats
W:
8:00 PM
Concordia (Wis.) at Marian
Live Stats Video
W:
8:00 PM
UW-Stevens Point at UW-Superior
W:
8:30 PM
St. Thomas at St. Olaf
Friday, Nov. 21: All times Eastern
M:
Start of 1st
Colby 0
Bowdoin 0
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Geneseo State at Cortland State
Live Stats Video
M:
Start of 1st
Skidmore 0
Babson 0
Live Stats Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Brockport State at Oswego State
Live Stats Video Audio
M:
7:00 PM
Norwich at Saint Anselm
Video Audio
M:
7:00 PM
Elmira at Hobart
Live Stats Video
M:
7:00 PM
Morrisville State at Plattsburgh State
Live Stats Video
M:
Start of 1st
Castleton State 0
Mass-Boston 0
Live Stats Live Stats Video
M:
7:30 PM
Amherst at Trinity (Conn.)
Live Stats
M:
8:00 PM
Lake Forest at UW-Stevens Point
Live Stats Video Audio
M:
8:00 PM
Adrian at UW-Eau Claire
Video Tickets
M:
8:00 PM
Saint Mary's (Minn.) at St. John's
Live Stats Video Audio
M:
8:05 PM
Lawrence at UW-River Falls
Live Stats Audio
Friday, Nov. 21: All times Eastern
W:
Final
at UW-River Falls 7, UW-Eau Claire 1
Box Score
W:
7:00 PM
Wesleyan at Amherst
Video
W:
7:30 PM
Norwich at Salve Regina
Live Stats Video
W:
8:00 PM
Hamline at Gustavus Adolphus
W:
8:00 PM
Adrian at St. Norbert
Video
W:
8:00 PM
UW-Stevens Point at UW-Superior

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