February 7, 2012

Men's Computer Rankings - Feb. 7, 2012

by Steve Wiitala 

 

The most obvious thing that we see in this week’s rankings is that Norwich has moved back on top.  It makes a great illustration of why we pay so much attention to the concept of margin of error here.  Because of changes in strenght-of-schedule, Norwich gained a little bit by playing New England College and St. Anselm, and Oswego State lost a little bit by playing Morrisville.  The net result was large enough that the two swapped places.  These are the kind of changes that can happen within the margin of error in these rankings.  There was no major event involving either team, but the end result is that we have a new leader. 
 

Elsewhere, in the upper echelons of the rankings we see some big moves.  Amherst continues to roll, and after sweeping Bowdoin and Colby the Lord Jeffs gained 27 points and four positions in the rankings as a consequence.  By splitting with Manhattanville, Utica regains most of the ground they lost last week and finds itself tied with Amherst at No. 4, a mere six points ahead of Manhattanville.  Idle Elmira dropped a couple of spots in the rankings, and this shifting around among the ECAC West teams again shows us how competitive that league is week in and week out.

Castleton’s loss last weekend to UMass Boston knocked the Spartains down 20 points and six positions.  Although our rankings are not official, they do suggest that when the NCAA committee begins making decisions, this past weekend may have hurt the Spartans should they not win the ECAC East tournament.

In the West Region, the top two teams are St. Thomas and UW-River Falls, and both have now moved into the top ten after big weekends in the MIAC and NCHA respectively.  UW-Stevens Point also was a gainer, as the Pointers picked up 21 points and eight positions to move up to No. 13.  The Pointers opened the season in 28th position and their rankings had settled into the high teens and low 20s for most of the season.  One of the great things that we have seen this season is that in both regions there is a lot of parity, which means if teams are able to string a nice run together they end up making a decent run up the rankings. 

 
 
 

School (Poll Rank)

W

L

T

Rating

Rank Change

Rating Change

1

Norwich (1)

18

1

1

674

1

8

2

Oswego (2)

17

2

2

664

(1)

(7)

3

Plattsburgh (3)

15

2

4

663

0

13

4

Amherst (4)

16

3

1

640

4

27

4

Utica (8T)

15

6

1

640

2

20

6

Manhattanville (11)

10

6

3

634

0

11

7

Elmira (6)

13

6

2

621

(2)

(5)

8

St. Thomas (7)

17

3

2

615

5

14

9

Wis - River Falls (10)

15

6

2

614

6

18

10

Castleton (8T)

15

4

2

608

(6)

(20)

11

St. Norbert (5)

13

5

5

607

0

0

12

Wis-Stevens Point (12)

11

8

4

592

8

21

13

Neumann (15)

12

6

1

591

(3)

(18)

14

St. Scholastica(13)

12

7

4

588

(5)

(23)

15

Bowdoin

11

4

3

582

1

(9)

15

Hobart

11

9

1

582

2

10

17

Wis-Eau Claire

11

10

2

574

(6)

(33)

18

Wesleyan

12

7

1

571

5

11

19

Williams

9

5

5

568

(5)

(29)

20

Gustavus Adolphus

11

7

3

561

1

(8)

21

Concordia MN

9

8

4

558

4

13

21

Salem State

11

6

3

558

2

1

23

Middlebury

9

8

3

551

5

24

24

Adrian(14)

15

5

1

549

(2)

(14)

25

Fredonia

10

8

3

548

(8)

(30)

25

Wentworth

13

6

1

548

4

25

27

Wis. - Superior

9

8

6

546

0

16

28

Buffalo State

10

10

2

545

(10)

(27)

29

Mass-Dartmouth

13

6

1

543

(3)

8

30

Curry

11

7

2

528

(1)

3

31

Plymouth State

12

6

2

525

2

6

32

Mass-Boston

10

8

3

524

(2)

1

33

Milw School of Eng

15

5

1

520

11

31

33

New England College

9

8

4

520

1

8

33

St. Olaf

10

6

5

520

(3)

(1)

36

Tufts

10

8

2

513

3

8

37

Trinity

7

9

2

503

10

26

38

Babson

7

11

3

501

17

42

38

Geneseo

11

10

1

501

(5)

(15)

40

Marian

9

8

4

496

(2)

(13)

41

Wis. – Stout

8

14

1

495

(5)

(16)

42

Potsdam

8

10

2

494

9

28

42

St. Anselm

8

8

3

494

3

13

44

Brockport

7

12

3

493

(8)

(18)

45

Hamilton

7

10

3

490

(3)

(6)

46

Southern Maine

7

9

4

483

(7)

(22)

47

Western NE College

11

10

0

482

(6)

(20)

48

St. John's

9

10

2

479

(3)

(8)

49

Hamline

9

12

2

472

2

6

50

Skidmore

8

11

2

471

9

39

51

Fitchburg State

8

9

3

469

2

5

52

Lawrence

9

9

3

464

8

34

53

Augsburg

8

12

1

459

(3)

(9)

53

Conn. College

4

12

3

459

4

16

55

St. Mary's

4

16

1

456

(12)

(34)

56

Bethel

6

13

2

452

(8)

(19)

57

Worcester State

7

10

3

445

3

15

58

Morrisville

4

17

1

444

(2)

(7)

59

Johnson and Wales

12

7

2

442

(10)

(27)

60

Westfield State

5

11

3

438

2

14

61

Cortland

5

15

1

437

(7)

(25)

62

Becker

8

12

1

413

(5)

(31)

63

Nichols

8

12

1

409

4

27

64

Colby

4

14

0

403

1

(1)

65

St. Michael's

6

12

2

397

3

22

66

Assumption

10

8

1

395

(2)

(10)

67

Finlandia

8

13

0

394

4

64

68

Framingham State

3

13

3

392

(5)

(17)

69

Northland

6

12

3

364

(3)

(29)

70

Stonehill

6

10

2

343

(1)

(29)

71

Franklin Pierce

5

9

4

320

4

29

72

U New England

3

15

2

317

(2)

(28)

73

Salve Regina

4

14

0

294

(1)

(16)

74

Concordia WI

1

16

3

293

0

(12)

75

Suffolk

2

18

0

281

(2)

(25)

76

Lake Forest

3

16

0

253

0

16

77

So. New Hampshire

1

17

1

200

0

(21)

 

Margin of error:

Games played

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

16

18

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

17

18

18

 
 
 
 
 
 

18

18

17

17

   
 
 
 

19

17

17

17

17

 
 
 
 

20

17

17

17

16

16

 
 
 

21

17

17

16

16

16

16

 
 

22

17

16

16

16

16

16

15

 

23

16

16

16

16

16

15

15

15

 

 

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.


 ~
 Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.
With another week of play in the books, we look at this weeks computer rankings.
The first and most obvious change is that Oswego has displaced Norwich at the top
of the list this week. This was not totally unexpected, as Norwich spent the weekend
playing two games against St. Michaels (ranked 68th), and as a consequence, their
strength of schedule components were reduced. On the weekend, the Cadets lost
14 points. Oswego also lost points for similar reasons (they played Cortland and
Hamilton), but their 6 point loss was enough to move them ahead of Norwich. This
is a good illustration of the fact that small fluctuations in the ratings can cause
changes in rank without any major events. The difference between Norwich and
Oswego was not statistically significant last week, and it’s not statistically significant
this week when they are flipped the other way. At this point we can certainly
say that Oswego and Norwich are very close statistically, and Plattsburgh is not
far behind. The comparison between Plattsburgh and Oswego is just outside
the margin of error, and then there is a gap as we move down the rankings from
Plattsburgh to Castleton.

Manhattanville and Utica made big moves this week, as Manhattanville’s sweep
over Neumann moved them all the way from 16th position to 6th, and Utica’s tie with
Elmira and win over Amherst moved them into 7th on the list. Another impressive
move came from St. Scholastica, who moved up 5 positions and 21 points by
sweeping Wisconsin-River Falls. Beyond those changes, the rankings held pretty
steady for the most part, and with the exception of Adrian, the top 15 in the poll line
up very well with the top 15 in these rankings.

We haven’t paid a lot of attention to the bottom of these rankings, but we did see
one interesting move on the part of Nichols, who by going 2-0 for the week gained
41 points in the ratings. That’s an impressive change for this time of the season.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
13

Team (Poll Rank)
Oswego (2)
Norwich (1)
Plattsburgh (3)
Castleton (4)
Elmira (6)
Manhattanville
Utica (7)
Amherst (8)
St. Scholastica (14)
Neumann (13)
St. Norbert (5)
Wis. - Eau Claire (12)
St. Thomas (10)

W

14
13
12
14
12
8
12
12
11
12
11
11
13

L

2
1
2
3
5
4
5
3
5
5
4
6
3

T

2
1
4
0
2
3
1
1
3
0
4
2
2

Rating
671
666
650
628
626
623
620
613
611
609
607
607
601

Change
in Rank

1
(1)
0
0
0
10
6
(2)
5
(1)
(3)
(2)
(1)

Change
in Rating

(6)
(14)
(8)
(7)
8
37
23
(4)
21
(2)
(5)
(1)
(1)

14
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
30
32
33
34
35
36
36
38
39
39
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

Williams (11)
Wis - River Falls (9)
Bowdoin
Fredonia
Hobart
Buffalo State
Wis. - Stevens Point
Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian (15)
Wesleyan
Salem State
Concordia MN
Mass-Dartmouth
Wis. - Superior
Middlebury
Curry
Mass-Boston
Wentworth
St. Olaf
Plymouth State
Geneseo
New England College
Brockport
Wis. - Stout
Marian
Southern Maine
Tufts
Western NE College
Hamilton
St. Mary's
Milw School of Eng
St. John's
St. Anselm
Trinity
Bethel
Johnson and Wales
Augsberg
Potsdam
Hamline
Fitchburg State
Cortland
Babson
Morrisville
Becker
Conn. College
Skidmore

9
12
10
9
10
9
8
10
13
10
9
8
10
8
7
8
9
9
8
9
10
8
7
7
8
5
6
9
7
4
12
6
6
6
6
10
6
6
7
6
4
5
3
7
3
5

2
5
3
6
7
8
8
5
4
5
5
8
5
8
6
6
6
6
4
5
9
6
10
11
5
6
8
7
8
12
5
9
5
7
11
5
10
9
10
8
13
11
14
9
10
10

4
2
2
3
0
2
3
2
0
1
2
3
1
3
2
1
2
1
5
2
0
2
2
1
4
4
1
0
1
1
0
2
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2

597
596
591
578
572
572
571
569
563
560
557
545
535
530
527
525
523
523
521
519
516
512
511
511
509
505
505
502
496
490
489
487
481
477
471
469
468
466
466
464
462
459
451
444
443
432

(3)
(8)
6
2
5
(4)
(3)
(3)
4
(2)
11
(5)
(3)
1
(3)
10
11
(3)
(2)
(1)
(4)
(1)
7
(10)
(1)
0
(5)
(9)
(4)
1
7
7
(4)
7
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(3)
8
(4)
3
(3)
(1)
1
(2)

(10)
(20)
26
7
22
(17)
(6)
(3)
20
(8)
35
(24)
(15)
(5)
(20)
18
17
(12)
(11)
(7)
(16)
(13)
12
(25)
(9)
(2)
(17)
(24)
(13)
(6)
26
26
(21)
28
(2)
(9)
(18)
(28)
(2)
53
(4)
25
(1)
5
11
(6)

60
60
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77

Margin of error

Worcester State
Lawrence
Westfield State
Framingham State
Assumption
Colby
Northland
Nichols
St. Michael's
Stonehill
U New England
Finlandia
Salve Regina
Suffolk
Concordia WI
Franklin Pierce
Lake Forest
So. New Hampshire

6
5
3
3
8
2
6
5
3
5.5
3
5
3
2
1
3.5
1
1

8
9
9
9
7
13
8
11
10
7.5
10
12
11
13
12
8.5
14
15

3
3
3
3
1
0
3
1
2
1
2
0
0
0
3
3
0
1

430
430
424
409
405
404
393
382
375
372
345
330
310
306
305
291
237
217

(1)
(6)
3
3
(1)
(3)
(2)
3
(1)
(1)
(1)
0
0
0
1
(1)
0
0

(2)
(11)
28
14
0
(5)
(7)
41
0
1
(12)
0
(14)
(8)
12
(8)
(18)
(14)

15

16

17

18

19

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

12
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19

13

20
20
20
19
19
19
18

14

20
19
19
19
18
18

19
19
18
18
18

18
18
18
17

18
17
17

17
17

17
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Saturday, Oct. 25: All times Eastern
M:
4:00 PM
Black and White at Adrian
M:
7:00 PM
US National Under 18 at Oswego State
W:
2:00 PM
Ancaster Avalanche at Utica
W:
8:00 PM
Blue White Game at Concordia (Wis.)
No contests today.
No contests today.

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