Men's Computer Rankings - Jan. 10, 2012

Jan 10, 2012

by Steve Wiitala

After a holiday break layoff, the computer rankings return. The last two weekends of play have provided us with some interesting results and some motion in the computer rankings. Among the significant moves involving teams in the top 10 of the rankings, Plattsburgh picks up 30 points to move from sixth into a tie for second, Amherst loses 50 points to fall from second to seventh, and Williams picks up 40 points to move up from 18^th to ninth. Norwich is still well out in front with a 60 point lead over Oswego/Plattsburgh, but that difference is well outside the margin of error. Norwich, statistically, is having a fine season and at this point everyone is in pursuit of the Cadets. Behind Norwich we have a tie for second, a tie for fourth between Castleton and Elmira, with River Falls virtually tied with those two as well.

	Team (Poll Rank)	G	W	L	T	Rating	Prev. Rank	Prev. Rating
1	Norwich (1)	11	10	0	1	720	1	756
2	Oswego (3)	14	10	2	2	660	3	673
2	Plattsburgh (2)	11	10	2	3	660	6	630
4	Castleton (6)	15	12	3	0	639	5	646
4	Elmira (9)	14	8	5	1	639	4	654
6	Wis - River Falls (4)	15	11	2	2	636	8	624
7	Amherst (10)	11	9	2	0	628	2	678
8	Neumann (5)	13	10	3	0	618	14	588
9	Williams (11)	10	7	1	2	614	18	574
10	Wis. - Eau Claire (12)	16	10	6	0	610	12	608
11	Utica (7)	15	11	4	0	607	11	613
12	St. Thomas	14	9	3	2	602	9	617
13	St. Norbert (8)	15	7	4	4	602	10	616
14	Gustavus Adolphus (13)	15	9	4	2	590	23	561
15	Wesleyan	12	8	4	0	587	16	579
15	Wis. - Stevens Point	13	8	7	2	587	22	565
17	Manhattanville	10	5	4	1	585	17	578
17	Buffalo State	14	7	5	2	585	21	567
19	St. Scholastica	14	7	5	2	584	7	628
20	Concordia MN	15	7	5	3	573	13	606
21	Hobart	13	7	6	0	564	28	540
22	Bowdoin	11	7	3	1	561	43	483
22	Fredonia	13	6	4	3	561	18	574
24	Middlebury	12	6	4	2	554	27	555
25	Wis. – Superior (13)	15	8	5	2	550	26	559
26	Plymouth State	12	8	4	0	542	15	586
27	St. Olaf	14	7	4	3	539	24	560
28	Adrian (15)	13	9	4	0	537	31	525
29	Western NE College	11	7	4	0	534	24	560
30	Wentworth	13	8	4	1	525	47	474
31	Salem State	11	6	4	1	522	30	529
32	St. Mary's	13	4	9	0	520	34	521
33	Mass-Dartmouth	11	7	3	1	519	36	514
34	Geneseo	15	9	6	0	517	31	525
35	New England College	12	7	5	0	516	33	523
36	Wis. - Stout	15	6	8	1	512	29	530
37	Curry	11	7	4	0	511	20	571
38	Tufts	11	5	5	1	507	51	460
39	Hamilton	11	5	5	1	502	41	488
40	Southern Maine	11	5	6	0	500	35	517
40	Potsdam	14	7	7	0	500	37	507
42	St. Anselm	9	4	3	2	490	39	498
43	Bethel	15	5	10	0	487	38	504
44	Brockport	14	4	8	2	485	40	497
45	Milw School of Eng	13	10	3	0	483	44	482
46	Hamline	15	6	8	1	481	44	482
47	Augsberg	13	5	8	0	467	55	439
48	Marian	13	6	3	4	465	50	461
49	Johnson and Wales	13	9	4	1	462	46	478
50	Cortland	16	4	11	1	461	48	470
51	Mass-Boston	13	5	6	2	460	42	484
52	Morrisville	14	2	11	1	458	52	455
53	Conn. College	11	3	7	1	455	68	373
54	Becker	14	5	8	1	436	64	399
55	Worcester State	12	5	5	2	431	49	464
55	Lawrence	13	5	5	3	431	59	429
57	St. John's	13	3	8	2	430	57	431
58	Colby	10	2	8	0	426	61	418
58	Trinity	10	3	7	0	426	56	436
60	Babson	13	3	10	0	424	53	448
61	Westfield State	10	2	6	2	422	57	431
62	Skidmore	14	4	9	1	421	60	421
63	Fitchburg State	12	3	7	2	411	67	385
64	Assumption	12	6	7	1	409	54	444
65	St. Michael's	10	2	6	2	401	62	402
66	Northland	12	3	7	2	384	65	396
67	Stonehill	12	5	6	1	382	63	400
68	Framingham State	10	1	7	2	374	66	388
69	U New England	11	3	6	2	363	69	352
70	Finlandia	12	1	11	0	339	72	334
71	Nichols	13	3	9	1	331	73	325
72	Suffolk	11	2	9	0	326	71	344
73	Salve Regina	13	3	10	0	325	69	352
74	Concordia WI	13	1	10	2	309	74	314
75	Franklin Pierce	11	1	7	3	283	75	293
76	Lake Forest	11	1	10	0	271	76	272
77	So. New Hampshire	14	1	12	1	233	77	251

Margin of error table

	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
9	25
10	24	24
11	24	23	22
12	23	22	22	21
13	22	22	21	21	20
14	22	21	21	20	20	20
15	21	21	20	20	20	19	19
16	21	20	20	20	19	19	19	18

To read this table, locate the number of games played by the team with the greater number of games in the row, and the number of games played by the other team in the appropriate column. For example to determine if the difference between Elmira and Williams is with the margin of error, note that Elmira has played 14 games and Williams has played 10. Reading the row labeled 14 and the column labeled 10, we see that the margin of error for the comparison is 21. Since the difference of ratings between the two is 25, we can conclude that the difference between the two is significant, and to this point in the season, Elmira’s performance with respect to the factors we measure has been superior to that of Williams.

Relative Conference Strength?

On the discussion board just before the break, I was asked about the comparison of the strength of the leagues using statistical measurements. With no games on the schedule, I looked at three potential measures of league strength. The first is the median rating of the teams in the league. The median is often preferred as measure of center for a data set which has skewed distribution. This happens in leagues in which there is a dominant team or a team that lags far behind the others. The second is the mean rating of the teams in the league, and the final one is the winning percentage of the teams in out of conference play. Here’s what we found:

	Median	Median Rank	Mean	Mean Rank	NC Win%	NC Win% Rank
ECAC E	475.0	6	493.4	6	0.5094	5
ECAC NE	462.0	7	430.6	8	0.4322	8
ECAC W	607.0	1	602.6	1	0.7176	1
MASCAC	431.0	8	460.1	7	0.4507	7
NESCAC	530.5	3	526.0	4	0.6154	3
NE - 10	332.5	10	326.8	10	0.2286	10
SUNYAC	517.0	5	543.0	3	0.5263	4
MCHA	407.5	9	402.4	9	0.2639	9
MIAC	520.0	4	521.0	5	0.4623	6
NCHA	587.0	2	583.0	2	0.7128	2

These results are interesting, but perhaps not surprising. It does appear that the two strongest leagues by these measures are the ECAC West and the NCHA, while the two weakest are the Northeast 10 and the MCHA. Are these statistics definitive, of course not, but they can be a source for interesting discussion.

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.

Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.