January 24, 2012

Men's Computer Rankings - Jan. 24, 2012

by Steve Wiitala

 

With another week of play in the books, it's now time to look at this week's computer rankings.  The first and most obvious change is that Oswego has displaced Norwich at the top of the list this week.  This was not totally unexpected, as Norwich spent the weekend playing two games against St. Michaels (ranked 68th) and as a consequence, its strength of schedule components were reduced.  This resulted in a loss of 14 points.

Oswego also lost points for similar reasons (the Lakers played Cortland and Hamilton), but their 6 point loss was enough to move it ahead of Norwich.  This is a good illustration of the fact that small fluctuations in the ratings can cause changes in rank without any major events.

The difference between Norwich and Oswego was not statistically significant last week, and it’s not statistically significant this week.   At this point we can certainly say that Oswego and Norwich are very close statistically, and Plattsburgh is not far behind.  The comparison between Plattsburgh and Oswego is just outside the margin of error, and then there is a gap as we move down the rankings from Plattsburgh to fourth-ranked Castleton.

Manhattanville and Utica made big moves this week, as Manhattanville’s sweep over Neumann moved the Valiants all the way from 16th position to No. 6, while Utica’s tie with Elmira and win over Amherst moved the Pioneers up six spots to No. 7.  Another impressive move came from St. Scholastica, who moved up five positions and 21 points by sweeping Wisconsin-River Falls.  Beyond those changes, the rankings held pretty steady for the most part and, with the exception of Adrian, the top 15 in the D3hockey.com Men's Top 15 poll line up very well with the top 15 in these rankings.

We haven’t paid a lot of attention to the bottom of these rankings, but we did see one interesting move and it came from Nichols  It's 2-0 week was enough for a healthy 41 point gain in the ratings. That’s an impressive change for this time of the season. 

 
 
 

Team (Poll Rank)

W

L

T

Rating

Change in Rank

Change in Rating

1

Oswego (2)

14

2

2

671

1

(6)

2

Norwich (1)

13

1

1

666

(1)

(14)

3

Plattsburgh (3)

12

2

4

650

0

(8)

4

Castleton (4)

14

3

0

628

0

(7)

5

Elmira (6)

12

5

2

626

0

8

6

Manhattanville

8

4

3

623

10

37

7

Utica (7)

12

5

1

620

6

23

8

Amherst (8)

12

3

1

613

(2)

(4)

9

St. Scholastica (14)

11

5

3

611

5

21

10

Neumann (13)

12

5

0

609

(1)

(2)

11

St. Norbert  (5)

11

4

4

607

(3)

(5)

11

Wis. - Eau Claire (12)

11

6

2

607

(2)

(1)

13

St. Thomas (10)

13

3

2

601

(1)

(1)

14

Williams (11)

9

2

4

597

(3)

(10)

15

Wis - River Falls (9)

12

5

2

596

(8)

(20)

16

Bowdoin

10

3

2

591

6

26

17

Fredonia

9

6

3

578

2

7

18

Hobart

10

7

0

572

5

22

18

Buffalo State

9

8

2

572

(4)

(17)

20

Wis. - Stevens Point

8

8

3

571

(3)

(6)

21

Gustavus Adolphus

10

5

2

569

(3)

(3)

22

Adrian (15)

13

4

0

563

4

20

23

Wesleyan

10

5

1

560

(2)

(8)

24

Salem State

9

5

2

557

11

35

25

Concordia MN

8

8

3

545

(5)

(24)

26

Mass-Dartmouth

10

5

1

535

(3)

(15)

27

Wis. - Superior

8

8

3

530

1

(5)

28

Middlebury

7

6

2

527

(3)

(20)

29

Curry

8

6

1

525

10

18

30

Mass-Boston

9

6

2

523

11

17

30

Wentworth

9

6

1

523

(3)

(12)

32

St. Olaf

8

4

5

521

(2)

(11)

33

Plymouth State

9

5

2

519

(1)

(7)

34

Geneseo

10

9

0

516

(4)

(16)

35

New England College

8

6

2

512

(1)

(13)

36

Brockport

7

10

2

511

7

12

36

Wis. - Stout

7

11

1

511

(10)

(25)

38

Marian

8

5

4

509

(1)

(9)

39

Southern Maine

5

6

4

505

0

(2)

39

Tufts

6

8

1

505

(5)

(17)

41

Western NE College

9

7

0

502

(9)

(24)

42

Hamilton

7

8

1

496

(4)

(13)

43

St. Mary's

4

12

1

490

1

(6)

44

Milw School of Eng

12

5

0

489

7

26

45

St. John's

6

9

2

487

7

26

46

St. Anselm

6

5

3

481

(4)

(21)

47

Trinity

6

7

1

477

7

28

48

Bethel

6

11

2

471

0

(2)

49

Johnson and Wales

10

5

2

469

(2)

(9)

50

Augsberg

6

10

1

468

(4)

(18)

51

Potsdam

6

9

2

466

(6)

(28)

51

Hamline

7

10

2

466

(3)

(2)

53

Fitchburg State

6

8

2

464

8

53

54

Cortland

4

13

1

462

(4)

(4)

55

Babson

5

11

1

459

3

25

56

Morrisville

3

14

1

451

(3)

(1)

57

Becker

7

9

1

444

(1)

5

58

Conn. College

3

10

2

443

1

11

59

Skidmore

5

10

2

432

(2)

(6)

60

Worcester State

6

8

3

430

(1)

(2)

60

Lawrence

5

9

3

430

(6)

(11)

62

Westfield State

3

9

3

424

3

28

63

Framingham State

3

9

3

409

3

14

64

Assumption

8

7

1

405

(1)

0

65

Colby

2

13

0

404

(3)

(5)

66

Northland

6

8

3

393

(2)

(7)

67

Nichols

5

11

1

382

3

41

68

St. Michael's

3

10

2

375

(1)

0

69

Stonehill

5.5

7.5

1

372

(1)

1

70

U New England

3

10

2

345

(1)

(12)

71

Finlandia

5

12

0

330

0

0

72

Salve Regina

3

11

0

310

0

(14)

73

Suffolk

2

13

0

306

0

(8)

74

Concordia WI

1

12

3

305

1

12

75

Franklin Pierce

3.5

8.5

3

291

(1)

(8)

76

Lake Forest

1

14

0

237

0

(18)

77

So. New Hampshire

1

15

1

217

0

(14)

 

Margin of error

 

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

12

21

             

13

21

20

           

14

20

20

20

         

15

20

20

19

19

       

16

20

19

19

19

18

     

17

19

19

19

18

18

18

   

18

19

19

18

18

18

17

17

 

19

19

18

18

18

17

17

17

17

 

 

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.


 ~
Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.
With another week of play in the books, we look at this weeks computer rankings.
The first and most obvious change is that Oswego has displaced Norwich at the top
of the list this week. This was not totally unexpected, as Norwich spent the weekend
playing two games against St. Michaels (ranked 68th), and as a consequence, their
strength of schedule components were reduced. On the weekend, the Cadets lost
14 points. Oswego also lost points for similar reasons (they played Cortland and
Hamilton), but their 6 point loss was enough to move them ahead of Norwich. This
is a good illustration of the fact that small fluctuations in the ratings can cause
changes in rank without any major events. The difference between Norwich and
Oswego was not statistically significant last week, and it’s not statistically significant
this week when they are flipped the other way. At this point we can certainly
say that Oswego and Norwich are very close statistically, and Plattsburgh is not
far behind. The comparison between Plattsburgh and Oswego is just outside
the margin of error, and then there is a gap as we move down the rankings from
Plattsburgh to Castleton.

Manhattanville and Utica made big moves this week, as Manhattanville’s sweep
over Neumann moved them all the way from 16th position to 6th, and Utica’s tie with
Elmira and win over Amherst moved them into 7th on the list. Another impressive
move came from St. Scholastica, who moved up 5 positions and 21 points by
sweeping Wisconsin-River Falls. Beyond those changes, the rankings held pretty
steady for the most part, and with the exception of Adrian, the top 15 in the poll line
up very well with the top 15 in these rankings.

We haven’t paid a lot of attention to the bottom of these rankings, but we did see
one interesting move on the part of Nichols, who by going 2-0 for the week gained
41 points in the ratings. That’s an impressive change for this time of the season.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
13

Team (Poll Rank)
Oswego (2)
Norwich (1)
Plattsburgh (3)
Castleton (4)
Elmira (6)
Manhattanville
Utica (7)
Amherst (8)
St. Scholastica (14)
Neumann (13)
St. Norbert (5)
Wis. - Eau Claire (12)
St. Thomas (10)

W

14
13
12
14
12
8
12
12
11
12
11
11
13

L

2
1
2
3
5
4
5
3
5
5
4
6
3

T

2
1
4
0
2
3
1
1
3
0
4
2
2

Rating
671
666
650
628
626
623
620
613
611
609
607
607
601

Change
in Rank

1
(1)
0
0
0
10
6
(2)
5
(1)
(3)
(2)
(1)

Change
in Rating

(6)
(14)
(8)
(7)
8
37
23
(4)
21
(2)
(5)
(1)
(1)

14
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
30
32
33
34
35
36
36
38
39
39
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

Williams (11)
Wis - River Falls (9)
Bowdoin
Fredonia
Hobart
Buffalo State
Wis. - Stevens Point
Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian (15)
Wesleyan
Salem State
Concordia MN
Mass-Dartmouth
Wis. - Superior
Middlebury
Curry
Mass-Boston
Wentworth
St. Olaf
Plymouth State
Geneseo
New England College
Brockport
Wis. - Stout
Marian
Southern Maine
Tufts
Western NE College
Hamilton
St. Mary's
Milw School of Eng
St. John's
St. Anselm
Trinity
Bethel
Johnson and Wales
Augsberg
Potsdam
Hamline
Fitchburg State
Cortland
Babson
Morrisville
Becker
Conn. College
Skidmore

9
12
10
9
10
9
8
10
13
10
9
8
10
8
7
8
9
9
8
9
10
8
7
7
8
5
6
9
7
4
12
6
6
6
6
10
6
6
7
6
4
5
3
7
3
5

2
5
3
6
7
8
8
5
4
5
5
8
5
8
6
6
6
6
4
5
9
6
10
11
5
6
8
7
8
12
5
9
5
7
11
5
10
9
10
8
13
11
14
9
10
10

4
2
2
3
0
2
3
2
0
1
2
3
1
3
2
1
2
1
5
2
0
2
2
1
4
4
1
0
1
1
0
2
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2

597
596
591
578
572
572
571
569
563
560
557
545
535
530
527
525
523
523
521
519
516
512
511
511
509
505
505
502
496
490
489
487
481
477
471
469
468
466
466
464
462
459
451
444
443
432

(3)
(8)
6
2
5
(4)
(3)
(3)
4
(2)
11
(5)
(3)
1
(3)
10
11
(3)
(2)
(1)
(4)
(1)
7
(10)
(1)
0
(5)
(9)
(4)
1
7
7
(4)
7
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(3)
8
(4)
3
(3)
(1)
1
(2)

(10)
(20)
26
7
22
(17)
(6)
(3)
20
(8)
35
(24)
(15)
(5)
(20)
18
17
(12)
(11)
(7)
(16)
(13)
12
(25)
(9)
(2)
(17)
(24)
(13)
(6)
26
26
(21)
28
(2)
(9)
(18)
(28)
(2)
53
(4)
25
(1)
5
11
(6)

60
60
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77

Margin of error

Worcester State
Lawrence
Westfield State
Framingham State
Assumption
Colby
Northland
Nichols
St. Michael's
Stonehill
U New England
Finlandia
Salve Regina
Suffolk
Concordia WI
Franklin Pierce
Lake Forest
So. New Hampshire

6
5
3
3
8
2
6
5
3
5.5
3
5
3
2
1
3.5
1
1

8
9
9
9
7
13
8
11
10
7.5
10
12
11
13
12
8.5
14
15

3
3
3
3
1
0
3
1
2
1
2
0
0
0
3
3
0
1

430
430
424
409
405
404
393
382
375
372
345
330
310
306
305
291
237
217

(1)
(6)
3
3
(1)
(3)
(2)
3
(1)
(1)
(1)
0
0
0
1
(1)
0
0

(2)
(11)
28
14
0
(5)
(7)
41
0
1
(12)
0
(14)
(8)
12
(8)
(18)
(14)

15

16

17

18

19

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

12
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19

13

20
20
20
19
19
19
18

14

20
19
19
19
18
18

19
19
18
18
18

18
18
18
17

18
17
17

17
17

17
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