January 31, 2012

Men's Computer Rankings - Jan. 31, 2012

by Steve Wiitala 

 

The computer rankings are  beginning to solidify into clusters of teams when it comes to the top 17 positions in this week's rankings.   For the most part, those clusters are separated with gaps that make all of the teams in one cluster separated by a statistically significant margin from the others.  The one exception to this is Plattsburgh, which is within the margin of error of both Norwich and Utica.  Purely by having observed the Cardinals play Norwich twice, I will assign Plattsburgh to the upper cluster with Oswego and Norwich.

After a week in which the top three teams swept through without defeats, the standings of the top trio remains the same.  Oswego continues to gain on both Norwich and Plattsburgh due to strength of schedule issues, and at this point Oswego leads Norwich by 13 points.  That difference still remains within the margin of error of 16 points.  Similarly, Norwich holds a 12 point lead over Plattsburgh.  The teams are all very close, but it is reasonable to identify Oswego, Norwich and Plattsburgh as the top cluster of teams both in the East and nationally.

There is another cluster of teams that populate the No. 4 through No. 7 positions with Utica, Manhattanville, Amherst, Elmira, and Castleton all grouped within 18 points from top to bottom.  Utica made a big move this past week, gaining 17 ratings points and moving up three postitions in the standings.  Manhattanville also has been moving up the rankings over the last few weeks without drawing a lot of notice. This cluster has three of the five teams in the ECAC West, all of whom are in contention for the league title and perhaps a Pool C bid to the NCAAs.

The next group of teams occupies positions nine through 13, and in this cluster we see the first Western teams in the rankings.  The big surprise is that the team at the top of this cluster comes from the MIAC and not the NCHA.  St. Thomas, Neumann, St. Norbert, St. Scholastica, and Wisconsin-River Falls form another  tightly bunched group of teams.  With 3 teams from the NCHA in this grouping, we note that as usual, the NCHA is a league that is competitive from top to bottom.

The teams from 14-17 represent an interesting kind of transitional group.  UW-Eau Claire and Williams exhibited substantial drops in their ratings this week, while UW-Stevens point made a nice positive move.  Those teams have kind of met in the middle on the fringes of the top 15.  In the next few weeks, as teams battle for critical playoff seedings, the competition should be intense.  It is especially interesting to note the presence of teams from the same leagues clustered so close together in the rankings, which means we can no doubt expect some exciting and competitive match-ups as the season winds down.

 

 

School (Poll Rank)

W

L 

T

Rating

Rank Change

Rating Change

1

Oswego (2)

16

2

2

673

0

2

2

Norwich (1)

16

1

1

660

0

(6)

3

Plattsburgh (3)

13

2

4

648

0

(2)

4

Utica (5)

14

5

1

637

3

17

5

Manhattanville (13)

9

5

3

632

1

9

5

Amherst (6)

14

3

1

632

3

19

7

Elmira (8)

13

6

2

621

(2)

(5)

8

Castleton (4)

15

3

1

619

(4)

(9)

9

St. Thomas (9)

15

3

2

610

4

9

10

Neumann (11)

12

5

0

606

0

(3)

11

St. Norbert (7)

12

5

4

603

0

(4)

12

St. Scholastica (11)

12

5

4

602

(3)

(9)

13

WI - River Falls (10)

13

6

2

601

2

5

14

WI - Eau Claire

11

8

2

589

(3)

(18)

15

Bowdoin (15)

11

3

2

587

1

(4)

16

Wis. - Stevens Point

10

8

3

585

4

14

17

Williams (14)

9

3

5

583

(3)

(14)

18

Gustavus Adolphus

10

6

3

566

3

(3)

19

Wesleyan

11

6

1

565

4

5

20

Salem State

11

5

2

564

4

7

21

Fredonia

10

6

3

563

(4)

(15)

22

Hobart

10

9

0

562

(4)

(10)

23

Adrian

13

5

1

561

(1)

(2)

24

Concordia MN

9

8

4

559

1

14

25

Mass-Dartmouth

12

5

1

555

1

20

25

Buffalo State

10

8

2

555

(7)

(17)

27

Curry

10

6

1

549

2

24

28

WI - Superior

9

8

4

539

(1)

9

29

Wentworth

11

6

1

529

1

6

30

Plymouth State

10

6

2

523

3

4

30

Tufts

7

8

2

523

9

18

32

Milw School of Eng

13

5

1

521

12

32

33

New England College

8

7

3

517

2

5

34

Middlebury

7

8

3

513

(6)

(14)

34

St. Olaf

8

6

5

513

(2)

(8)

36

Mass-Boston

9

7

3

509

(6)

(14)

37

Geneseo

11

10

0

507

(3)

(9)

38

Marian

9

6

4

504

0

(5)

39

Brockport

7

12

2

494

(3)

(17)

39

Wis. - Stout

7

13

1

494

(3)

(17)

41

Hamilton

7

9

2

489

1

(7)

42

Trinity

6

8

2

484

5

7

43

Southern Maine

5

9

4

483

(4)

(22)

43

St. John's

7

10

2

483

2

(4)

45

Babson

6

11

2

480

10

21

46

Augsburg

8

10

1

472

4

4

47

St. Mary's

4

14

1

468

(4)

(22)

48

St. Anselm

6

7

3

467

(2)

(14)

48

Conn. College

4

10

3

467

10

24

50

Hamline

8

11

2

466

1

0

51

Western NE College

9

10

0

462

(10)

(40)

52

Fitchburg State

7

9

2

461

1

(3)

52

Potsdam

6

10

2

461

(1)

(5)

54

Skidmore

7

10

2

460

5

28

55

Bethel

6

11

2

459

(7)

(12)

56

Johnson and Wales

11

6

2

451

(7)

(18)

57

Cortland

5

14

1

449

(3)

(13)

58

Lawrence

7

9

3

444

2

14

59

Becker

8

10

1

434

(2)

(10)

59

Morrisville

3

16

1

434

(3)

(17)

61

Westfield State

4

10

3

428

1

4

62

Worcester State

6

9

3

428

(2)

(2)

63

Assumption

9

8

1

409

1

4

64

Framingham State

3

11

3

399

(1)

(10)

65

Nichols

7

11

1

397

2

15

66

St. Michael's

5

10

2

393

2

18

67

Colby

2

13

0

387

(2)

(17)

68

Northland

6

10

3

381

(2)

(12)

69

Finlandia

6

13

0

371

2

41

70

Stonehill

6

8

2

357

(1)

(15)

71

U New England

3

12

2

340

(1)

(5)

72

Franklin Pierce

4

8

4

317

3

26

73

Suffolk

2

15

0

295

0

(11)

74

Salve Regina

3

13

0

294

(2)

(16)

75

Concordia WI

1

14

3

290

(1)

(15)

76

Lake Forest

3

14

0

258

0

21

77

So. New Hampshire

1

16

1

204

0

(13)

 

Margin of Error

 

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

15

19

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

16

19

18

 
 
 
 
 
 

17

18

18

18

 
 
 
 
 

18

18

18

17

17

 
 
 
 

19

18

17

17

17

17

 
 
 

20

17

17

17

17

16

16

 
 

21

17

17

17

16

16

16

16

 

22

17

17

16

16

16

16

16

15

 

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.


 ~
Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.
With another week of play in the books, we look at this weeks computer rankings.
The first and most obvious change is that Oswego has displaced Norwich at the top
of the list this week. This was not totally unexpected, as Norwich spent the weekend
playing two games against St. Michaels (ranked 68th), and as a consequence, their
strength of schedule components were reduced. On the weekend, the Cadets lost
14 points. Oswego also lost points for similar reasons (they played Cortland and
Hamilton), but their 6 point loss was enough to move them ahead of Norwich. This
is a good illustration of the fact that small fluctuations in the ratings can cause
changes in rank without any major events. The difference between Norwich and
Oswego was not statistically significant last week, and it’s not statistically significant
this week when they are flipped the other way. At this point we can certainly
say that Oswego and Norwich are very close statistically, and Plattsburgh is not
far behind. The comparison between Plattsburgh and Oswego is just outside
the margin of error, and then there is a gap as we move down the rankings from
Plattsburgh to Castleton.

Manhattanville and Utica made big moves this week, as Manhattanville’s sweep
over Neumann moved them all the way from 16th position to 6th, and Utica’s tie with
Elmira and win over Amherst moved them into 7th on the list. Another impressive
move came from St. Scholastica, who moved up 5 positions and 21 points by
sweeping Wisconsin-River Falls. Beyond those changes, the rankings held pretty
steady for the most part, and with the exception of Adrian, the top 15 in the poll line
up very well with the top 15 in these rankings.

We haven’t paid a lot of attention to the bottom of these rankings, but we did see
one interesting move on the part of Nichols, who by going 2-0 for the week gained
41 points in the ratings. That’s an impressive change for this time of the season.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
13

Team (Poll Rank)
Oswego (2)
Norwich (1)
Plattsburgh (3)
Castleton (4)
Elmira (6)
Manhattanville
Utica (7)
Amherst (8)
St. Scholastica (14)
Neumann (13)
St. Norbert (5)
Wis. - Eau Claire (12)
St. Thomas (10)

W

14
13
12
14
12
8
12
12
11
12
11
11
13

L

2
1
2
3
5
4
5
3
5
5
4
6
3

T

2
1
4
0
2
3
1
1
3
0
4
2
2

Rating
671
666
650
628
626
623
620
613
611
609
607
607
601

Change
in Rank

1
(1)
0
0
0
10
6
(2)
5
(1)
(3)
(2)
(1)

Change
in Rating

(6)
(14)
(8)
(7)
8
37
23
(4)
21
(2)
(5)
(1)
(1)

14
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
30
32
33
34
35
36
36
38
39
39
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

Williams (11)
Wis - River Falls (9)
Bowdoin
Fredonia
Hobart
Buffalo State
Wis. - Stevens Point
Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian (15)
Wesleyan
Salem State
Concordia MN
Mass-Dartmouth
Wis. - Superior
Middlebury
Curry
Mass-Boston
Wentworth
St. Olaf
Plymouth State
Geneseo
New England College
Brockport
Wis. - Stout
Marian
Southern Maine
Tufts
Western NE College
Hamilton
St. Mary's
Milw School of Eng
St. John's
St. Anselm
Trinity
Bethel
Johnson and Wales
Augsberg
Potsdam
Hamline
Fitchburg State
Cortland
Babson
Morrisville
Becker
Conn. College
Skidmore

9
12
10
9
10
9
8
10
13
10
9
8
10
8
7
8
9
9
8
9
10
8
7
7
8
5
6
9
7
4
12
6
6
6
6
10
6
6
7
6
4
5
3
7
3
5

2
5
3
6
7
8
8
5
4
5
5
8
5
8
6
6
6
6
4
5
9
6
10
11
5
6
8
7
8
12
5
9
5
7
11
5
10
9
10
8
13
11
14
9
10
10

4
2
2
3
0
2
3
2
0
1
2
3
1
3
2
1
2
1
5
2
0
2
2
1
4
4
1
0
1
1
0
2
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2

597
596
591
578
572
572
571
569
563
560
557
545
535
530
527
525
523
523
521
519
516
512
511
511
509
505
505
502
496
490
489
487
481
477
471
469
468
466
466
464
462
459
451
444
443
432

(3)
(8)
6
2
5
(4)
(3)
(3)
4
(2)
11
(5)
(3)
1
(3)
10
11
(3)
(2)
(1)
(4)
(1)
7
(10)
(1)
0
(5)
(9)
(4)
1
7
7
(4)
7
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(3)
8
(4)
3
(3)
(1)
1
(2)

(10)
(20)
26
7
22
(17)
(6)
(3)
20
(8)
35
(24)
(15)
(5)
(20)
18
17
(12)
(11)
(7)
(16)
(13)
12
(25)
(9)
(2)
(17)
(24)
(13)
(6)
26
26
(21)
28
(2)
(9)
(18)
(28)
(2)
53
(4)
25
(1)
5
11
(6)

60
60
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77

Margin of error

Worcester State
Lawrence
Westfield State
Framingham State
Assumption
Colby
Northland
Nichols
St. Michael's
Stonehill
U New England
Finlandia
Salve Regina
Suffolk
Concordia WI
Franklin Pierce
Lake Forest
So. New Hampshire

6
5
3
3
8
2
6
5
3
5.5
3
5
3
2
1
3.5
1
1

8
9
9
9
7
13
8
11
10
7.5
10
12
11
13
12
8.5
14
15

3
3
3
3
1
0
3
1
2
1
2
0
0
0
3
3
0
1

430
430
424
409
405
404
393
382
375
372
345
330
310
306
305
291
237
217

(1)
(6)
3
3
(1)
(3)
(2)
3
(1)
(1)
(1)
0
0
0
1
(1)
0
0

(2)
(11)
28
14
0
(5)
(7)
41
0
1
(12)
0
(14)
(8)
12
(8)
(18)
(14)

15

16

17

18

19

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

12
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19

13

20
20
20
19
19
19
18

14

20
19
19
19
18
18

19
19
18
18
18

18
18
18
17

18
17
17

17
17

17
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Friday, Oct. 24: All times Eastern
M:
7:30 PM
Norwich at St. Lawrence College Lions
M:
8:00 PM
Blue White Game at Concordia (Wis.)
No contests today.
No contests today.

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