February 22, 2012

Women's Computer Rankings - Feb. 21 2012

by Steve Wiitala

 

With the exception of a weekend of MIAC action, the regular season is now behind us and we can begin looking forward to the post season, and compare our rankings to the recently published NCAA rankings.

RIT continues to lead the way in the computer ranking, the poll, and the NCAA Eastern rankings.  With a 23-1-1 record, blemished only by a loss and a tie at the hands of Plattsburgh, the Tigers are a solid 20 points ahead of No. 2 Norwich.

Norwich, now at 22-2-1, had a strong 3-0 week that included wins over Middlebury and Holy Cross and has moved up to No. 2 as a result.  The Cadets wrap up the regular season with losses only to RIT and Amherst, both highly ranked in their own right.  The Cadets are not only second in the computer rankings, but also rank second in the D3hockey.com poll and in the NCAA Eastern rankings.

Tied at No. 3 we now see Amherst and Gustavus Adolphus. The Gusties dropped a position in the computer rankings this week after a split with St. Olaf, but remains the top-ranked West Region team in both the computer rankings and NCAA West Region rankings.  Our top five  is rounded out by Middlebury, who remain near the top despite a tough week that saw the Panthers lose to Norwich and tie with Plattsburgh State. With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the action ahead for the top ten teams in the computer rankings:

 
  1. RIT (692 points) – bye in ECAC West Tournament
  2. Norwich (672) – home against Nichols (414 points, ranked 44th ) in the ECAC East Tournament Quarterfinals
  3. (Tie) Amherst (664) – home against Connecticut College (505, 25th) in the NESCAC Tournament Quarterfinals 
  4. (Tie) Gustavus Adolphus (664)– Home and home regular season series with St. Benedicts (411, 45th)
  5. Middlebury (661) – home against Colby (439 points, ranked 38th) in the NESCAC Tournament Quarterfinals
  6. 6. Elmira (644)– home against Potsdam (494 points, ranked 29th) in the ECAC West Tournament Quarterfinals
  7. Plattsburgh (637) – bye in ECAC West Tournament
  8. Concordia (MN) (616)– two game regular season series at Augsburg (436, 39th)
  9. Wisconsin – River Falls (598) – two game series at home with Wisconsin Eau Claire (459, 34th) in the NCHA Tournament Quarterfinals
  10. St. Thomas - Home and home regular season series with Hamline (451, 36th)
Judging by the differences in the ranks, our model suggests that most of the top ten teams will still be around next week as the postseason continues (or in the case of the MIAC, gets started) 
 
 
 Through games played as of Monday, February 20
 

School (Poll Rank) [NCAA Rank]

W

L

T

Rating

Rank Change

Rating Change

1

RIT (1) [E1]

23

1

1

692

0

(9)

2

Norwich (2) [E2]

22

2

1

672

3

20

3

Amherst (4) [E3]

19

4

1

664

0

(5)

3

Gustavus Adolphus (7)[W1]

19

2

2

664

(1)

(9)

5

Middlebury (6) [E4]

18

3

3

661

(1)

(5)

6

Elmira (5) [E5]

20

4

1

644

0

3

7

Plattsburgh (3) [E6]

17

5

3

637

0

3

8

Concordia (MN) (9) [W3]

12

3

4

616

0

(12)

9

WI - River Falls (8) [W2]

19

5

2

598

0

(6)

10

St. Thomas [W5]

12

8

2

592

1

6

11

Holy Cross

16

3

3

586

(1)

(9)

12

St. Anselm

17

6

1

575

0

1

13

WI – Superior (10) [W4]

15

7

3

562

0

(4)

14

Manhattanville [E7]

13

8

4

552

0

(1)

15

Bowdoin [E8]

9

9

4

547

1

9

16

Adrian [W6]

14

8

2

541

2

18

17

Bethel

10

8

3

540

0

4

18

Trinity [E9]

13

10

0

536

(3)

(4)

19

St. Olaf

8

9

4

531

5

26

20

St. Scholastica [W7T]

12

6

5

525

2

11

21

Williams

10

12

0

511

11

26

22

Lake Forest [W7T]

13

9

2

508

(3)

(13)

22

Salve Regina

10

9

5

508

1

(4)

24

St. Catherine

10

9

2

507

1

9

25

Conn College

10

11

2

505

(4)

(15)

26

Hamilton

10

14

0

504

(7)

(17)

27

WI- Stevens Point

12

10

2

500

3

11

28

Utica

11

12

2

497

1

5

29

Potsdam

10

8

3

494

(1)

(3)

30

Neumann

8

11

2

485

(5)

(13)

30

Oswego

9

12

2

485

1

(2)

32

St. Mary's

6

11

5

483

1

8

32

St. Norbert

13

13

0

483

(7)

(15)

34

WI - Eau Clare

8

12

4

459

0

(14)

35

New England College

10

12

3

458

1

18

36

Hamline

8

13

2

451

(1)

(12)

37

Castleton

9

13

2

442

(1)

2

38

Colby

6

16

2

439

1

5

39

Augsburg

6

10

7

436

4

17

40

Southern Maine

7

12

3

434

1

8

41

Mass-Boston

6

13

3

431

(3)

(5)

42

Concordia (WI)

7

14

3

423

(2)

(9)

43

Wesleyan

4

16

0

415

2

(1)

44

Nichols

6

14

2

414

(1)

(5)

45

Buffalo State

7

16

2

411

(3)

(13)

45

St. Benedict

5

14

3

411

1

(2)

47

Cortland

5

16

1

407

0

2

48

St. Michaels

3

17

1

349

0

2

49

Plymouth State

1

18

3

339

0

(1)

50

Marian

1

21

3

309

0

(5)

51

Finlandia

0

22

2

279

0

(2)

52

Chatham

0

18

0

259

0

(2)

 
Margin of Error:

Games Played

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

22

15

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

23

15

15

 
 
 
 
 
 

24

15

15

15

 
 
 
 
 

25

15

15

15

14

 
 
 
 

26

15

15

14

14

14

 
 
 

27

15

14

14

14

14

14

 
 

28

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

 

29

14

14

14

14

14

14

13

13

 

Thoughts?

Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.

 

 ~
Dr. Steve Wiitala is a Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont. He possesses a M.A. from Western Washington University and a Ph.D. from Dartmouth College. He is a statistical consultant specializing in quality improvement.
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