Women's Computer Rankings - Mar. 9 2012
by Steve Wiitala
The preliminaries are over and now the run to the national title begins in earnest with four NCAA quarterfinal games this Saturday. RIT holds on to the top spot in the computer rankings with a win over Plattsburgh in the ECAC West Finals, while Norwich just hangs on to the second spot by a slim margin over Middlebury, Amherst and Gustavus Adolphus. As we have done the Men’s side of things, we will use our computer rankings to project who will advance to the Frozen Four on March 16 and 17.
Concordia-Moorhead (611) at RIT (700)
The computer gives a big edge to RIT. The Tigers have led the way much of the season and their only stumble was a weekend in which they suffered their only loss and tie at the hands of Plattsburgh. RIT made up for that this past weekend in the ECAC West tournament. The Cobbers inclusion in the field was a surprise to some, as many of us expected a 6-2 split between the East and West,with Elmira making the ECAC West a three bid league, but that did not happen. Both the computer and the polls indicate RIT is a heavy favorite in this quarterfinal game.
Plattsburgh (637) at Middlebury (667)
The Panthers won the NESCAC title at home last weekend and have a 30 point edge over the Cardinals in the computer. Middlebury posted a 1-0-1 record against the Plattsburgh this season, winning a game at Stafford Arena in November and then playing to a tie at home during the last weekend of the regular season. The computer says that the Panthers will advance to another National Semifinal appearance with a win over Plattsburgh.
Amherst (661) at Norwich (669)
Amherst and Norwich played once this season with the Jeffs winning on their home ice by a score of 2-0, in a game that marked the only shutout of the year for the high-scoring Cadets. This is the closest quarterfinal matchup of the tournament according to the computer. Norwich holds a slight (but not statistically significant) edge over Amherst. The computer picks Norwich, while also suggesting this should be a real battle.
Wisconsin-River Falls (606) at Gustavus Adolphus (661)
The Gusties and Falcons played once this season at Gustavus, and the result was a tie. That game put the first non-win on the Gusties record this season as they entered at a perfect 0-8., because at the time they were unbeaten and untied. Overall Gustavus compiled a stronger record and a substantial gap in the computer rankings. This difference is significant. Look for Gustavus to advance to the national semifinals with a win at home.
The computer’s projection for the Frozen Four:
RIT, Middlebury, Norwich and Gustavus Adolphus.
If that holds, it would be exactly the same field as took to the ice last year at RIT, and exactly the same matchups. Will history repeat itself or will there be an upset? Our analysis suggests that Norwich is the most vulnerable of the four, while RIT is the least.
through games as of Sunday, March 4
|
School (Poll Rank) |
W |
L |
T |
Rating |
Rank Change |
Rating Change |
|
|
1 |
RIT (1) |
25 |
1 |
1 |
700 |
0 |
5 |
|
2 |
Norwich (2) |
25 |
2 |
1 |
669 |
0 |
0 |
|
3 |
Middlebury (3) |
21 |
3 |
3 |
667 |
1 |
10 |
|
4 |
Amherst (4) |
21 |
5 |
1 |
661 |
(1) |
(5) |
|
4 |
Gustavus Adolphus (6) |
23 |
2 |
2 |
661 |
0 |
4 |
|
6 |
Plattsburgh (5) |
18 |
6 |
3 |
637 |
0 |
(3) |
|
7 |
Elmira (8) |
20 |
5 |
1 |
636 |
0 |
(1) |
|
8 |
Concordia (MN) (9) |
14 |
4 |
5 |
611 |
0 |
0 |
|
9 |
WI - River Falls (7) |
22 |
5 |
2 |
606 |
0 |
4 |
|
10 |
St. Thomas |
14 |
9 |
2 |
585 |
0 |
(6) |
|
11 |
St. Anselm |
18 |
6 |
1 |
583 |
0 |
(2) |
|
12 |
Holy Cross |
17 |
4 |
3 |
573 |
0 |
(1) |
|
13 |
WI – Superior (10) |
17 |
8 |
3 |
567 |
0 |
(6) |
|
14 |
Manhattanville |
15 |
9 |
4 |
552 |
0 |
2 |
|
15 |
Adrian |
16 |
10 |
2 |
548 |
1 |
1 |
|
16 |
Bowdoin |
10 |
10 |
4 |
546 |
(1) |
(3) |
|
17 |
Trinity |
14 |
11 |
0 |
535 |
0 |
(2) |
|
18 |
St. Olaf |
9 |
10 |
4 |
531 |
0 |
0 |
|
19 |
Lake Forest |
15 |
10 |
2 |
527 |
0 |
(3) |
|
20 |
Bethel |
10 |
10 |
4 |
524 |
0 |
0 |
|
21 |
Potsdam |
11 |
9 |
3 |
516 |
0 |
(2) |
|
22 |
St. Scholastica |
12 |
8 |
5 |
514 |
0 |
0 |
|
23 |
WI- Stevens Point |
13 |
11 |
2 |
509 |
0 |
1 |
|
24 |
St. Catherine |
11 |
10 |
2 |
508 |
(1) |
0 |
|
25 |
Williams |
10 |
13 |
0 |
502 |
0 |
(2) |
|
26 |
Conn College |
10 |
12 |
2 |
501 |
0 |
(1) |
|
27 |
Salve Regina |
10 |
10 |
5 |
499 |
0 |
0 |
|
28 |
Hamilton |
10 |
15 |
0 |
498 |
0 |
0 |
|
29 |
Utica |
11 |
12 |
2 |
497 |
(1) |
(1) |
|
30 |
St. Mary's |
7 |
11 |
6 |
492 |
0 |
0 |
|
31 |
Oswego |
10 |
13 |
2 |
488 |
0 |
(2) |
|
32 |
St. Norbert |
13 |
15 |
0 |
479 |
0 |
(1) |
|
33 |
Neumann |
8 |
12 |
2 |
477 |
0 |
0 |
|
34 |
Wisconsin - Eau Clare |
9 |
14 |
4 |
474 |
1 |
14 |
|
35 |
New England College |
11 |
13 |
3 |
459 |
(1) |
(3) |
|
36 |
Castleton |
10 |
14 |
2 |
455 |
0 |
1 |
|
37 |
Augsburg |
6 |
11 |
8 |
443 |
1 |
0 |
|
37 |
Hamline |
8 |
15 |
2 |
443 |
0 |
(1) |
|
39 |
Colby |
6 |
17 |
2 |
435 |
0 |
0 |
|
40 |
Southern Maine |
7 |
13 |
3 |
427 |
0 |
0 |
|
41 |
Mass-Boston |
6 |
14 |
3 |
426 |
(1) |
(1) |
|
42 |
Concordia (WI) |
7 |
14 |
3 |
425 |
0 |
0 |
|
43 |
St. Benedict |
5 |
16 |
3 |
416 |
0 |
0 |
|
44 |
Nichols |
6 |
15 |
2 |
412 |
0 |
0 |
|
45 |
Buffalo State |
7 |
16 |
2 |
411 |
0 |
0 |
|
46 |
Cortland |
5 |
16 |
1 |
408 |
0 |
(1) |
|
46 |
Wesleyan |
4 |
16 |
0 |
408 |
1 |
0 |
|
48 |
St. Michaels |
3 |
18 |
1 |
349 |
0 |
0 |
|
49 |
Plymouth State |
1 |
18 |
3 |
337 |
0 |
0 |
|
50 |
Marian |
1 |
21 |
3 |
311 |
0 |
0 |
|
51 |
Finlandia |
0 |
22 |
2 |
279 |
0 |
1 |
|
52 |
Chatham |
0 |
18 |
0 |
256 |
0 |
2 |
Margin of Error: 13 points
Thoughts?
Questions, comments, arguments or otherwise, don't hesitate to jump into the discussion in the D3hockey forum.
